Russia increased oil production in July as stronger exports and recovering refinery runs gave producers somewhere to put more barrels.
Crude oil and condensate output rose by roughly 100,000 barrels per day from June to more than 9 million bpd, two industry sources told Reuters on Thursday. Oil and fuel sales remain critical to Russia’s budget, giving Moscow every reason to keep production flowing despite sanctions and repeated attacks on its energy infrastructure.
OPEC estimates for Russian production came in at 8.928 million bpd in June, a 61,000 bpd decrease from May, and down from 9.129 million bpd across the full year 2025. Russia stopped publishing official oil production figures years ago, and now it’s just outside estimates and anonymous industry sources taking a stab at Russian output.
July’s increase came on the back of increased crude exports and a partial recovery in refinery throughput after damage earlier this year knocked processing capacity offline. Russia’s central bank said refinery attacks and export constraints had already weighed on production, while limited pipeline and port capacity made it difficult to redirect displaced refinery barrels abroad.
August could be a different story. Ukrainian drone attacks intensified in late July and early August, forcing several refineries to suspend operations. A fire broke out at a refinery in Russia’s Yaroslavl region on Thursday following another drone strike.
Russia plans to increase crude exports from its western ports by 4% in August as unplanned refinery outages free up additional barrels. That only works if Moscow can find ships and loading capacity. Available tanker supply in the Black Sea is already tight, and another round of refinery disruptions could overwhelm export routes.
The result is an increasingly awkward oil problem for Russia. Damaged refineries can temporarily boost crude exports by freeing barrels that would otherwise be processed at home. Too many outages, however, leave producers with more crude than ports and tankers can handle.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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