Global biomethane supply could reach around 21 billion cubic metres (bcm) in a base case and 52 bcm in a policy-driven maximum case by 2030, according to research from the Maersk Mc-Kinney Moeller Center for Zero-Carbon Shipping.
Both figures remain far below the global technical potential reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which suggests the main constraints are infrastructure, certification, regulation, and access to gas and LNG value chains rather than underlying biomass feedstock scarcity.
“Grid-adjacent feedstock availability is not the binding constraint before 2030,” it notes. “Instead, the key question is whether shipping can access this broader gas-based system through a certified mass-balancing framework.”
Certification requirements have a crucial role to play, it adds. “Without globally recognised mass balancing, shipping would likely have to rely on physically segregated biomethane supply chains, which are difficult and costly to scale. At present, mass-balance accounting remains a key hurdle and would require further regulatory clarity.”
©Maersk McKinney Moeller Center
Lower-emissions energy carriers for hard-to-abate sectors like shipping are available but unlikely to scale in the absence of regulations that make them cost-competitive.
The research and development center’s estimated total net zero framework-induced unconstrained demand for low-emissions fuel in 2030 is equivalent to around 30 bcm of biomethane although realised uptake will be lower, bounded by the methane-capable fleet, bunkering infrastructure, and cross-sector competition. Overall it identifies unconstrained demand for 26 million tonnes of low sulphur fuel oil-equivalent of alternative fuel by 2030.
Some stakeholders have raised concerns about whether enough low-emissions alternative fuels will be available for ships to meet their compliance obligations if climate policy is enacted. For example, the draft International Maritime Organization net-zero framework would require ships to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of the energy they use over time.
“If these fuels are not available, ships may instead continue to use fuel oil and rely on paying penalties to comply,” it concludes.
The five maritime emissions frameworks now simultaneously in force or approaching formal adoption are , according to recent research from Wood Mackenzie.
Earlier this summer French shipping operator CMA CGM Group completed the of the Notre Dame, its 24,000 TEU LNG-powered container ship and currently the world’s largest LNG-powered container vessel.
Shipping lines are also actively using the , and Avenir LNG is to supply container shipping giant Maersk .
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