Six months since the Iran war crippled Qatar’s LNG exports via the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s second-largest liquefied natural gas exporter has lost $24 billion in sales as exports tumbled by as much as 96%, Reuters calculations showed on Wednesday.
The number of LNG cargoes that Qatar has managed to export crashed to just 18, down from 509 cargoes shipped from Qatar in the same period of last year, per data from data intelligence firm ICIS cited by Reuters.
Qatar’s LNG exports are arguably the biggest energy commodity casualty of the war, as Qatar hasn’t managed to sneak as many vessels out of Hormuz as the UAE, for example, has done in recent months.
The slashed exports from Qatar have wide-ranging implications for the global LNG and gas markets, with U.S. LNG exports benefitting from high prices and no-conflict-zone origin and Europe left without Qatari shipments, struggling to fill gas storage sites ahead of the winter.
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped about 20% of daily global LNG flows. In addition, Iranian drone and missile strikes on energy infrastructure in the region have damaged Qatar’s key LNG liquefaction complex, Ras Laffan.
Qatar’s state firm QatarEnergy expects the damage to the Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s single largest LNG-producing facility, to cost it about $20 billion per year in lost revenue and to take up to five years to repair.
QatarEnergy has been forced to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts.
The LNG crunch has sent Asian and European gas prices to the highest levels in three years and stoked fears about rebuilding gas inventories in Europe ahead of the next winter.
Natural gas prices in Europe need to jump by December for European storage to fill up with enough inventory for the coming winter if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists and keeps spot LNG prices in Asia elevated, Goldman Sachs said earlier this month.
Since the Middle East crisis began, Europe has started losing the competition with Asia for spot LNG supply amid spiking prices in the absence of most Qatari LNG term volumes.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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