European benchmark natural gas prices jumped by 5% in early morning trade on Monday as the re-escalation of hostilities between the United States and Iran intensified concerns about LNG supply from the Middle East.
The benchmark price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) soared by 5% in morning trade in Amsterdam, and the price topped 70 euros, or $81.20, per megawatt-hour (MWh), after the U.S. and Iran resumed trading strikes for the first time in more than a month.
This was the highest price the front-month benchmark futures have seen in more than three and a half years, since January 2023.
Oil prices also soared, by 3.6% in the morning in Europe, amid heightened market concerns that the re-escalation could unwind much of the rebound in oil volumes that are estimated to have left the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks.
The renewed hostilities and the still blocked Strait of Hormuz for LNG traffic is tightening global gas markets, where Asia and Europe are competing for a shrinking pool of supply to fill storage ahead of the coming winter.
Europe is heading for the winter with one of the lowest levels of gas in storage in the past two decades as the war in the Middle East crippled LNG supply from Qatar, sent gas and LNG prices in Europe and Asia skyrocketing, and intensified competition for readily available global LNG cargoes that don’t need to cross geopolitically charged chokepoints.
The return of hostilities on Monday and last week’s announcement from Qatar that it is extending the force majeure on its LNG deliveries to customers by one month through October are pushing Europe’s gas prices higher at the start of this week.
LNG traffic at the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill, even though oil flows are estimated to have rebounded in recent weeks.
Unlike crude oil, LNG cannot be shuttle-shipped through Hormuz and then reloaded via a ship-to-ship (STS) transfer, as Persian Gulf producers, including Qatar, have been doing in recent months to ship oil to customers.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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