What is the oil and gas impact of the Gulf’s Tropical Storm Edouard?
Well, according to Earth Science Associates’ (ESA) GOMsmart platform, the answer to that question is – minimal.
At the time of writing, ESA’s GOMsmart platform projected mean production losses of 19,999 barrels of oil and 69.9 million cubic feet of gas as a result of Edouard. The platform projected mean production losses of 7.1 million barrels of oil and 9.8 billion cubic feet of gas as a result of Storm Bertha.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) August short term energy outlook, in 2025, total crude oil output in the federal Gulf of America averaged 1.90 million barrels per day and total marketed natural gas production in the federal Gulf of America averaged 1.9 billion cubic feet per day.
In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Monday, EBW Energy Analyst Eli Rubin warned that “tropical feature Invest 97L in the Gulf of America developed over the weekend, suggesting a modest tropical storm over the next 24 hours with landfall expected in northeast Texas”.
“While projections for a very mild storm suggest little facility or infrastructure damage is likely, cooling rains to dampen a very hot ERCOT or even temporary shifts in LNG exports imply only bearish impacts,” he added.
“The storm may drive moderate natural gas demand destruction while serving as a potent reminder into the heart of hurricane season,” he continued.
Tropical Storm Edouard had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour, a minimum central pressure of 1,005 mb, and an eight mile per hour west-northwest movement, as of 4am CDT on September 1, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) website showed.
In a statement posted on its site at 4am CDT today offering “key messages” for Edouard, the NHC warned that the storm is expected to strengthen and said it could approach hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast later today.
“Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest Gulf Coast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to Cameron,” it noted.
“A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, where peak values of three to five feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coast within the warning area,” it added.
“Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and tomorrow as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be possible,” it warned.
In a statement posted on its site recently, NOAA announced that it was maintaining its prediction for a “below-normal” Atlantic hurricane season.
“With the climatological peak of hurricane season approaching in early September, NOAA’s prediction for below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin remains,” NOAA said in its statement.
NOAA revealed in the statement that its forecasters were predicting a 75 percent chance for “below-normal” activity, a 20 percent chance of a “near-normal” season, and a five percent chance of “above-normal” activity. It noted that this updated prediction was similar to its initial outlook issued in May.
In that outlook, NOAA predicted a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above normal season.
NOAA highlighted in its latest statement that forecasters from its National Weather Service had updated the number of expected named storms to 7-13. Of these, two to six could become hurricanes, including zero to two major hurricanes, the statement noted.
ESA’s website highlights that its GOMsmart platform forecasts production lost based on the path, strength, and speed of a storm impacting platforms in the Gulf. Back in July, an ESA spokesperson told Rigzone that ESA is a “leading provider of data and analytic tools to the companies that produce oil and gas in the Gulf”, adding that its clients are responsible for over 85 percent of the basin’s hydrocarbons.
Atlantic weather systems have severely affected oil and gas operations in the Gulf in the past. For example, at its peak, on August 29, 2021, and 94.47 percent of gas production on August 31, 2021, U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) figures revealed.
To contact the author, email
