OPEC+ is likely to leave its oil production policy unchanged for October when seven of its core members meet on Sunday, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing three sources close to the matter.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman are due to meet online at 11:00 GMT Sunday. The seven producers have spent much of 2026 raising their monthly production quotas, with the September increase completing the phased rollback of 1.65 million barrels per day of supply cuts first agreed in 2023.
Much of that additional supply has failed to reach the market. Actual production has lagged the higher quotas as the Iran war disrupted Gulf exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while the war in Ukraine has hit exports from Russia and Kazakhstan. OPEC production rose by 1.17 million bpd in July, but output remained well below the group’s quotas.
The Iran war has also weakened OPEC+’s ability to influence the market. With Gulf exports constrained by the disruption in Hormuz, Reuters said the group’s production decisions now have less impact on prices and market share than they did before the war.
Brent crude was trading near $94 per barrel Wednesday as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and attacks on tankers kept attention on physical supply from the Gulf rather than OPEC+ production targets.
OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts covering most of its 21 members through the end of 2026. Attention is now turning to production baselines for 2027, which determine how individual countries’ quotas are calculated.
Dallas-based independent petroleum consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton is reviewing the production capacity of most OPEC+ members and is expected to submit its findings in late September. Iraq has pushed for a higher quota to reflect increased capacity, while the UAE left OPEC in May partly because it believed its quota failed to recognize its expanded production capacity. Venezuela is also considering leaving the group.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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