James Tam, Co-Chairman of EcoCeres, the global renewable energy firm, explores how best to scale SAF during increasingly unstable times
As 2026 unfolds in an age of geopolitical fragmentation, the debate over sustainable aviation is changing. The central question is no longer just how fast we can decarbonise, but whether the world can produce enough sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at a pace, quality, and scale that can withstand a highly unstable operating environment.
James Tam
In a period of disrupted supply chains and renewed geopolitical tension, aviation needs fuel systems that are not only lower in carbon, but also more secure and resilient. The next phase of decarbonisation will be decided by whether SAF can be produced and delivered at scale, under credible standards, in the places that need it most.
From pledges to dependable supply
For sustainable aviation, the bottleneck is not a lack of commitment; it is turning those commitments into dependable supply. SAF projects must remain viable through fuel-price swings, policy cycles, and geopolitical shocks. That requires more than technology (although that has been highlighted as a ); it demands durable policy support, diversified feedstock strategies, and regional value chains that can perform under pressure.
While SAF is already used commercially, projected global output still represents only a small fraction of jet fuel demand. The distance between climate goals and available supply is now impossible to ignore. For regulators and producers, the challenge is how to create demand certainty and clear standards, while leaving enough flexibility for technologies and feedstocks to evolve.
Why diversification matters now
Diversification must sit at the centre of SAF strategy. Today a large share of production comes from pathways using waste oils and fats. These routes have been essential in getting the market started, but they cannot on their own deliver the scale required for global aviation in the coming decades.
The sector will need a broader portfolio of feedstocks and technologies, including agricultural residues, forestry residues, municipal solid waste, alcohol-to-jet pathways and, over time, e-SAF or other emerging power-to-liquid options. A diversified system is more secure, more scalable, and significantly less vulnerable to disruption than one dependent on a narrow pool of globally traded feedstocks.
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Energy security in a fractured world
Recent global events have underscored how exposed aviation remains to traditional fossil-fuel supply chains. During recent geopolitical conflicts, the International Energy Agency warned of rapidly dwindling jet fuel reserves in Europe as flows through critical chokepoints such as the were constrained. Airlines cut flights to save fuel, and nations drew down strategic petroleum reserves at unprecedented rates just to keep their economies moving.
These episodes highlight two structural vulnerabilities in how the world powers aviation today. First, jet fuel remains overwhelmingly derived from crude oil, tieing airlines directly to the geopolitics of oil markets. Second, the system relies heavily on long-haul sea routes to move fuel from a limited number of production centres to demand hubs around the world.
SAF offers a direct way to ease both pressure points. By replacing a significant share of fossil-based jet fuel with waste- and residue-based SAF, the industry can gradually reduce its direct exposure to crude oil markets. And when SAF is produced from local feedstocks and then refined, blended and uplifted close to the airports where it is used, it reduces dependence on vulnerable long-distance sea routes.
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A “local to local” test bed
This “local to local” model is particularly relevant for Asia’s major aviation hubs. The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao is moving from concept to practice, offering a blueprint for how an aviation hub can cut emissions and strengthen energy resilience at the same time. Few regions combine such a dense aviation network, manufacturing base, logistics capability and access to waste-based feedstocks within one integrated economic geography.
The broader lesson is that sustainable aviation will not scale on climate ambition alone. It will scale when SAF systems are designed to be credible, diversified, and resilient, and when regions build value chains that reflect local strengths rather than copying a single global template.
Waste-to-fuel pathways now emerging in the Greater Bay Area, including those being advanced by EcoCeres, offer one example of how this can be achieved. By turning local waste streams into strategic low-carbon fuel supply, these models point towards a more robust future for aviation — one that is lower in emissions, more secure in energy, and far more resilient to global shocks.
