Chinese independent refiners may be about to start reducing their processing rates as international oil prices rise and supply from major exporters such as Venezuela and Iran dries up as a result of U.S. foreign policy decisions.
“Teapots are unlikely to be able to afford a full shift to mainstream grades,” an Energy Aspects analyst said this week, as quoted by Bloomberg. The so-called teapots are more sensitive to adverse oil market changes due to their refining margins being slimmer than those of state-owned majors. These margins have already fallen to breakeven, from around $10 per barrel in early July, Jianan Sun also said.
China imported 37.93 million tons, or 8.93 million barrels per day of crude oil in August, up by 6.2% compared to July, and further recovering from the decade-low seen in June, official Chinese customs data showed on Tuesday. The August import level was still 23.4% lower compared to the same month last year, but it’s a marked improvement from the June lows of just 7.1 million bpd.
China slashed its total crude oil imports to a decade low in June, culminating three months of very low import levels amid high prices and constrained supply from the Middle East. This affected refinery output, which in turn contributed to the global fuel squeeze that is now set to deepen and extend in time as fighting in the Middle East continues and intensifies, pushing oil prices higher and sapping some refiners’ appetite for the commodity.
With Venezuelan and Iranian crude all but gone, Chinese refiners will probably lean more heavily on Russian crude in the coming weeks. However, Russian crude prices are also on the rise on the futures market, in tune with all the other blends that trade internationally, which will likely put a lid on demand.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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