HSBC Raises 2026 Brent Forecast to $90 as Hormuz Crisis Drags On

HSBC has hiked its Brent Crude forecast for 2026 to $90 per barrel from $80 as the Strait of Hormuz crisis is tightening markets while no clear path to de-escalation is in sight.

The oil markets are unlikely to rebalance until the middle of 2027, HSBC analyst Kim Fustier wrote in a note, as cited by The Wall Street Journal.

The bank’s base-case scenario for the coming weeks and months is a fragile form of understanding between the United States and Iran which would be susceptible to breakdowns and uncertainties, including in terms of shipping security and insurance.

HSBC’s Fustier forecasts that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will rise to about 8 million barrels per (bpd) by the end of 2026, up from 6 million bpd now.

This estimate is below some other analyst projections and current flows tracking that suggest about 10 million bpd of crude and petroleum products move through Hormuz at present.

Still, even if the 10 million bpd estimate is correct, this is half the pre-war levels of about 19-20 million bpd of oil that transited the chokepoint every day.

HSBC expects Hormuz oil flows to gradually move up to 9.5 million bpd by the middle of 2027, Fustier said, noting that this would lead to continued tightness in the oil markets for nearly another year.

Hence, HSBC’s higher Brent Crude forecast of $90 per barrel for 2026.

Early on Thursday, Brent Crude prices hovered at $101 per barrel, having breached the $100 mark on Wednesday for the first time since July, as the U.S.-Iran tanker war escalated.

In HSBC’s ‘stalemate’ scenario, with diplomacy failed and flows constrained as-is, Brent could jump to $120 per barrel.

This is not the bank’s base-case scenario, but it is close to Goldman Sachs’ warning from earlier this week that oil prices could surge to as much as $120 per barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East intensify.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com