OPEC now expects global oil demand growth to jump from just 380,000 barrels per day this year to 2.36 million bpd in 2027—a more than sixfold increase in the space of a year.
The cartel trimmed its 2026 demand-growth forecast in its September Monthly Oil Market Report, putting total consumption this year at 105.84 million bpd. For 2027, OPEC raised its forecast, with global demand expected to reach 108.19 million bpd.
The swing is especially stark in China. OPEC expects Chinese oil demand to grow by only 10,000 bpd this year, leaving consumption essentially flat at 16.90 million bpd. In 2027, OPEC expects China to add 380,000 bpd, taking demand to 17.28 million bpd.
India shows an even sharper change. Demand growth there is pegged at just 60,000 bpd in 2026. OPEC sees another 400,000 bpd arriving next year, lifting Indian consumption to 6.11 million bpd.
OECD demand is expected to shrink by 110,000 bpd this year. OPEC has penciled in 430,000 bpd of growth for 2027, including increases in the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific.
Non-OECD countries account for most of next year’s increase. Their combined demand growth accelerates from 490,000 bpd in 2026 to 1.92 million bpd in 2027. China, India and the rest of Asia alone account for nearly 1.2 million bpd of that increase.
OPEC’s own barrels would face a much bigger call under that forecast. Demand for crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is expected to rise from 42.2 million bpd in 2026 to 43.9 million bpd next year. OPEC puts that increase at about 1.6 million bpd.
OPEC has lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast repeatedly this year.
OPEC is heading into 2027 with a demand forecast that looks nothing like 2026: roughly 2 million additional barrels per day of annual growth, led overwhelmingly by countries outside the OECD.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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