The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its forecast for U.S. crude oil production in 2027 to 14.3 million barrels per day, up from 14.2 million bpd in August and 14.0 million bpd in July.
For 2026, EIA is still calling for 13.8 million bpd, unchanged from its July and August forecasts. That would top the 13.7 million bpd record set in 2025.
U.S. production averaged 13.7 million bpd during the first half of this year, up 300,000 bpd, or 2%, from the same period last year. Most of that increase came from the Permian and the U.S. part of the Gulf of Mexico.
The EIA expects Permian production to average 6.8 million bpd this year, 3% above 2025. WTI averaged $84 per barrel through August, up from $65 last year. Producers responding to the Dallas Fed’s March survey put average breakeven prices at $69 per barrel in the Midland Basin and $63 in the Delaware Basin.
The Gulf added another 200,000 bpd in the first half, a 10% increase year over year. Four projects that started production over the past year—Shenandoah, Ballymore, Whale and Salamanca—have produced a combined average of about 191,000 bpd since coming online.
Shenandoah leads the group at 70,000 bpd, followed by Ballymore at 58,000 bpd, Whale at 38,000 bpd and Salamanca at 25,000 bpd. EIA expects four additional, smaller Gulf projects to start by the end of 2026.
EIA expects Brent to average $91 per barrel in 2026 and $74 in 2027. Its U.S. crude production forecast rises another 500,000 bpd over the same period.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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