U.S. gasoline prices will spike further if the Trump Administration bans diesel exports, Morgan Stanley analysts say, as restrictions remain a debate amid record-high diesel prices in America.
“A diesel export ban could have the counterintuitive effect of an increase in gasoline prices if US refiners cut runs,” analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note carried by Bloomberg.
A ban on diesel exports would force U.S. refiners to cut refinery utilization rates because they would run out of storage for the diesel within just a few weeks. Reduced refinery utilization would crimple gasoline production, too, because the fuels are produced together, according to Morgan Stanley.
As a result, U.S. gasoline prices would spike further, from already record-high levels for this time of year.
As of September 23, the national average regular retail gasoline price was $4.4744 per gallon, according to AAA data.
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That’s up from $4.10 a gallon a month ago, and way above the $3.17 per gallon average price drivers paid at this time last year.
Diesel prices have jumped to $6.52 per gallon, up from $3.69 in the same week of 2025.
The White House on Wednesday denied an export ban is in the works, even if President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had hinted at the possibility hours earlier.
Amid the global fuel crunch and record-high diesel prices in the U.S., some Republican Senators led by Iowa’s Chuck Grassley are calling for a ban on diesel exports as record-high diesel prices are hitting American farmers and truckers.
The rumors and reports of a diesel ban sparked vehement opposition from the U.S. energy and manufacturing industries, while former oil executive and now Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said on Wednesday, “The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn’t work.”
“Export bans would lead to less fuel production, tighter supplies, and rising costs for American families, farmers, and truckers,” more than 30 U.S. business, energy, and manufacturing groups wrote in a letter on Wednesday, urging President Trump to reject the idea of fuel export restrictions.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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