The biggest Japanese LNG importer and largest power producer, JERA, does not expect the shipping hurdles for Qatari supply at the Strait of Hormuz to end in time for the winter.
“We don’t expect Qatar LNG coming back to the market soon,” Yukio Kani, chairman and global chief executive officer of JERA, told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Friday.
State-owned QatarEnergy has just extended the force majeure on LNG deliveries to Asia and Europe by another month through the end of November, as LNG cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked amid the protracted U.S.-Iran stalemate over the chokepoint and pathways to end the war.
The lack of supply from Qatar has pushed Asian spot LNG prices and Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices to the highest levels since the 2022-2023 crisis. Concerns are that there will be no immediate relief and the coming winter will lead to further price spikes.
The spot price of LNG will likely increase further amid historically low levels of gas in Europe’s storage sites and the EU ban on Russia’s LNG coming in January 2027, JERA’s Kani told Bloomberg.
The Iran war has changed the near-term outlook and sent LNG prices in Asia and Europe soaring to the highs last seen in the 2022 crisis. Europe is hard-pressed for supply ahead of winter, while price-sensitive buyers in Asia are scrambling for alternatives, burning more coal, and boosting renewable energy generation targets to avoid supply crunches and hefty gas import bills when the next crisis hits the energy market.
As of October 1, gas storage sites in the EU were 71% full, according to data by Gas Infrastructure Europe, compared to 86% for this time of year in the past five years. Some major economies, including the biggest, Germany, have even lower-than-average gas stored so far this filling season. Germany storage sites, for example, are only about 58% full, which has prompted concerns about supply security if the coming winter turns out much colder than previous winters.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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