A potential ban on exports of diesel fuel from the United States would affect Latin America the most, Goldman Sachs has said, despite reports that the pain from such a ban would be the greatest for Europe.
U.S. diesel imports cover as much as 50% of the fuel’s consumption across Mexico, Ecuador, Chile, and Peru, the investment bank said in a note quoted by Reuters, which makes these countries very vulnerable to a suspension in shipments abroad.
“Supply will likely adjust quickly given the global nature of diesel markets, so in practice the main global economic impacts will come from higher diesel prices,” Goldman said, adding that a ban could lower Latin America’s collective GDP growth by 1%. However, the effect on supply, if not prices, would be cushioned by a switch to other exporters.
The report citing Goldman’s note did not detail who those other exporters would be, with the world’s largest exporting region—the Middle East—still basically out of commission. Meanwhile, Russia has extended its ban on diesel exports, and President Putin has said Russian diesel will not return to international markets until there are sanctions on it. Earlier this week, China deepened the global diesel pain by suspending all fuel exports this month.
A ban on U.S. diesel exports is not a done deal, but President Trump said this week he was having conversations on the topic every day. However, he told the media that “it just seems that it would have a negative impact on gasoline.”
Even so, Trump has not yet ruled out the idea that emerged last month as retail diesel prices in the United States hit $6 per gallon nationwide average for the first time ever, and then $6.50 a gallon. He has also threatened France and Germany with a ban on exports unless they release some of the diesel they hold in storage. The two account for 35% of the European Union’s strategic diesel inventories.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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