ByCharles Kennedy– Mar 18, 2025, 9:30 AM CDT
Russia’s oil production this year is expected to be slightly lower compared to 2024, as Moscow will be compensating for previous overproduction per the agreed OPEC+ schedule, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday.
This year, Russia expects to produce between 515 million tons and 520 million tons of oil, Russian news agency TASS quoted Novak as saying.
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Last year, Russian oil production was 516 million tons.
Russia’s oil processing levels, however, are expected to rise this year, compared to 2024, said Novak, who is Russia’s top oil official and represents the country at the OPEC+ talks and meetings.
Speaking to reporters in Moscow, the Russian official also said that the global oil market is balanced with stable prices right now.
Last week, Novak told Reuters that the next few months would see an increase in global oil demand as fuel consumption will rise in the summer driving season. This expected rebound was factored in OPEC+’s decision to begin adding supply to the market from April, Novak said.
Earlier this month Novak said that OPEC+ could reverse the oil production increase after April if market imbalances occur. The group could “always play in the other direction” if necessary to stabilize the market, the official added.
OPEC+ decided to begin easing the cuts in April 2025, due to expectations of seasonal growth in oil demand with the start of the spring and summer road trips, according to the Russian deputy prime minister.
Currently, there is a case to restore some supply, due to rising demand in the spring, Novak said after the OPEC+ decision to start unwinding the cuts.
However, OPEC+ will monitor the market and if it finds balances tipping to oversupply “we can always play in the other direction,” the Russian official added.
OPEC itself sees robust oil demand growth for both 2025 and 2026. The cartel left its demand outlook unchanged in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) this week. OPEC sees global oil demand growing by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in each of 2025 and 2026.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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