Any talks about U.S. sanctions towards Russia are now blowing in the wind.
That’s what Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), said in an oil report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Monday morning.
“Instead, we’ll likely see unwinding of whatever sanctions are active today,” Schieldrop stated in the report.
“That should in principle be bearish for oil and gas prices, not bullish like we see Brent ticking a little up this morning,” he added.
In the report, Schieldrop described the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday as a “tremendous win for Putin”.
“Now back in the warmth with U.S. like never before, it is now up to [Ukraine President Volodymyr] Zelensky to end the war – not Putin,” he added.
“European leaders will today have to decide whether they want to side with Putin/Trump or with Ukraine. Well, ‘Daddy’ has staked the course. It is time for his European children to follow. But will they follow. That is the thrill of the day,” Schieldrop continued.
The SEB Chief Commodities Analyst highlighted in the report that Brent was “ticking marginally higher to $65.9 per barrel” this morning, “amid a mixed and cautious equity market awaiting the meeting between Donald Trump, Zelensky and a handful of top European leaders”.
Schieldrop pointed out in the report that Brent crude declined 1.1 percent last week, “ticking lower in part as U.S. oil inventories rose 7.5 million barrels with crude stocks up 3.0 million barrels together with solid build of 6.4 million barrels in propane and other oils”.
“Total U.S. oil stocks have been on a steady rise since late June, early July when total stocks were 49 million barrels below the 2015-19 average. Now they are only 20 million barrels below,” he added.
“Though crude and middle distillate stocks are still 29 million barrels and 21 million barrels below the 2015-19 average. Brent crude traded in a range of $65.02 – 67.13 per barrel and closed the week at $65.85 per barrel,” he went on to state.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Monday morning, Michael Brown, a Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said, “Friday saw turgid trade as participants awaited what turned out to be a damp squib of a summit between Presidents Trump and Putin”.
“In short, the summit yielded nothing by way of concrete progress and seemed to pretty much be a meeting about having another meeting to arrange more meetings, all while not achieving much,” he added.
“There’s not really much by way of fresh information for markets to discount on the geopolitical front. While Zelensky and Trump will meet today, and that may bear some fruit, I shan’t be holding my breath,” he continued.
Rigzone contacted the White House, the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Press Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, and the European Commission for comment on Schieldrop and Brown’s statements.
The European Commission declined to comment but directed Rigzone to a joint press briefing from Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which was held on Sunday.
“Since the beginning of Russia’s brutal invasion, Europe has been at Ukraine’s side, united, and we will support you [Ukraine] for as long as it takes for a just and lasting peace,” von der Leyen said in that press briefing.
“As long as the bloodshed in Ukraine continues, Europe will maintain diplomatic and, in particular, economic pressure on Russia. We will continue to strengthen sanctions,” von der Leyen added, noting that the commission has adopted 18 packages so far, and that it is “advancing preparation for the 19th”.
At the time of writing, the White House, the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Press Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine have not responded to Rigzone.
In a statement posted on his Truth Social page on August 16, Trump said, “a great and very successful day in Alaska!”.
“The meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia went very well, as did a late night phone call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine, and various European Leaders, including the highly respected Secretary General of NATO,” he added.
“It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up,” he continued.
In a statement posted on his X page earlier today, Zelensky said, “I have already arrived in Washington, tomorrow [Monday] I am meeting with President Trump”.
“Tomorrow [Monday] we are also speaking with European leaders. I am grateful to … [Trump] for the invitation. We all share a strong desire to end this war quickly and reliably. And peace must be lasting,” he added.
“I am confident that we will defend Ukraine, effectively guarantee security, and that our people will always be grateful to President Trump, everyone in America, and every partner and ally for their support and invaluable assistance,” he continued.
A statement posted on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs X account on August 16 highlighted that Putin said, at a meeting on the outcomes of the Russia-U.S. talks, “I would like to begin by noting that the visit was timely and quite useful”.
“Conversation was very frank and substantive which, in my view, moves us closer to making necessary decisions,” he added.
Olga Tokariuk, a fellow with CEPA, said “the threat of secondary sanctions has been particularly successful, so Putin would like to avoid that at any cost”.
“However … there are a lot of questions about … any kind of credibility of agreements with Russia, like how reliable are … Russian promises to stick to agreements of a ceasefire or anything else that might be discussed and put on paper at the meeting in Alaska,” Tokariuk added in that briefing.
Rigzone previously contacted the White House, the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Press Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for comment on Tokariuk’s statements. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to this Rigzone request for comment.
SEB describes itself on its website as a leading northern European financial services group, with a history dating back to 1856. Pepperstone describes itself on its site as one of the largest MetaTrader brokers in the world.
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