(Reuters) – Bank of America expects Brent crude to average $75 per barrel in 2025 and $73 in 2026, citing low global oil inventories, balanced supply and demand, and about 5 million barrels per day of OPEC spare production capacity.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, had cut output to keep oil stocks low and set a base price of $70 a barrel, but multiple policy uncertainties on trade, sanctions, foreign affairs and even OPEC+ output are likely to put pressure on oil prices, BofA said.
The bank said Brent crude oil is expected to average $60 to $80 a barrel through 2030, maintaining balance in oil markets. Factors such as the use of OPEC+’s spare capacity, a potential peace deal in Ukraine, or a major recession could push oil prices towards the lower end of the range, it added.
Annual non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by an average of 700,000 bpd between 2025 and 2030, below the historical average of 900,000 bpd in 2017 to 2022, due to an expected dip in global oil demand growth, BofA said.
“Following “peak oil demand growth” of 2.3 million b/d in 2023, we see consumption averaging roughly 1.1 million b/d this year and next,” BofA said, adding demand for oil is expected to grow slowly after 2026 due to the impact of electric vehicles, averaging around 106 million bpd from 2025 to 2030.
The bank said oil balances suggest the OPEC+ spare capacity should average over 4 million bpd through 2030, a significant increase from the past 20-year average of 3 million bpd.
BofA warned that OECD government oil inventories are near their lowest levels in decades and commercial stocks are below pre-pandemic levels. Refilling strategic reserves could support oil prices in the next five years.
Brent futures were trading at $74.37 a barrel on Monday while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $70.26.
The following is a list of the latest brokerage forecasts for 2025 average prices per barrel for Brent and WTI (in $ per barrel): Brokerage/Agency Brent WTI Forecasts as of
2025 2026 2025 2026 BofA $75 $73 – – Feb. 24, 2025 Goldman Sachs $78 $73 $75 $69 Jan. 31, 2025 Citi $67 $65 $63 $62 Jan. 22, 2025 Deutsche Bank $72 $72 $68 $68 Jan. 15, 2025 JP Morgan $73 $61 $69 $57 Dec. 19, 2024 Barclays $83 – $79 – Dec. 16, 2024 Macquarie $71 $64 $66 $60 Dec. 5, 2024 BMI $78 – $79 – Nov. 07, 2024 NAB $78 – – – Oct. 06, 2024 HSBC $70 – $67 – Sept. 30, 2024 UBS $75 – $71 – Sept. 16, 2024 DNB $77 – – Aug. 20, 2024 Morgan Stanley – $70 – Jan. 13, 2025
* indicates end-of-period forecast # current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters latest monthly poll, see
Reporting by Sarah S. Qureshi and Anmol Choubey; Editing by Nia Williams
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