Commercial electricity consumption in the United States has recovered from pandemic-related declines, with total sales to commercial customers in 2023 reaching 14 billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh), or 1% more than in 2019. This growth, however, has been concentrated in states experiencing rapid expansion of large-scale computing facilities such as data centers. Virginia and Texas have led this trend, adding 14 BkWh and 13 BkWh of demand, respectively. Reflecting these developments, forecasts for commercial electricity demand through 2025 were revised upward in the June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
In the 10 states with the highest electricity demand growth, consumption increased by a combined 42 BkWh between 2019 and 2023, representing a 10% rise. In contrast, electricity demand in the other 40 states declined by 28 BkWh, or 3%, over the same period. While growth in the top 10 states has remained steady overall, some areas experienced a slight decline in 2022 and 2023 due to mild summer weather.
Virginia has seen the most substantial growth, driven by Dominion Energy Virginia. The state has emerged as a key hub for data centers, with 94 new facilities connected since 2019, supported by access to high-capacity fiber networks and subsea cables. Similarly, Texas has seen significant demand increases due to its low costs for electricity and land, which have attracted data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. North Dakota has recorded the fastest relative growth, with demand rising 37% (2.6 BkWh) from 2019 to 2023, fueled by the establishment of large computing facilities. Western states like Arizona and Utah have also seen robust growth in commercial electricity consumption.
In contrast, demand in large states like New York, Illinois, and California has remained stagnant or declined since 2019.
Monthly forecasts of retail electricity sales by sector, provided in the STEO, were adjusted after reviewing data from utilities and grid operators in regions experiencing rapid data center development. The largest forecast revisions were made for the South Atlantic and West South Central census divisions, which account for 40% of U.S. commercial electricity demand. Consumption in the South Atlantic is now projected to grow by 5% in 2024 and 2% in 2025, while the West South Central region is expected to grow by 3% this year and 1% next year. Other regions, including the West North Central and Mountain census divisions, are forecast to see an average annual growth of 3% in 2024 and 2025.
Nationwide, U.S. sales of electricity to the commercial sector are expected to grow by 3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025. Rapidly evolving data center developments will continue to influence electricity demand, and forecasts will be re-evaluated as new information becomes available.
