The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. crude oil production forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently.
In its March STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, will average 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.76 million barrels per day in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in February, the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, would average 13.59 million barrels per day this year and 13.73 million barrels per day next year.
The EIA’s latest STEO outlined that the organization sees U.S. crude oil output coming in at 13.50 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 13.56 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.64 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.77 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.81 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 13.83 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.72 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.71 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of next year.
In its previous STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.40 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 13.57 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.65 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.74 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.77 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, 13.82 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.68 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.63 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The Federal Gulf of America is projected to produce 1.80 million barrels per day of the 2025 forecast of 13.61 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast of 13.76 million barrels per day, the EIA showed in its March STEO. Alaska is projected to produce 0.42 million barrels per day of the 2025 total and 0.44 million barrels per day of the 2026 total, and Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, are expected to produce 11.39 million barrels per day in 2025 and 11.52 million barrels per day next year, the EIA’s March STEO showed.
In its previous STEO, the EIA highlighted that the Federal Gulf of Mexico would produce 1.80 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.83 million barrels per day in 2026. That STEO projected that Alaska would produce 0.42 million barrels per day this year and 0.43 million barrels per day next year, and that Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), would produce 11.37 million barrels per day in 2025 and 11.47 million barrels per day in 2026.
In its February STEO, the EIA noted that, on January 20, Executive Order 14172 directed the U.S. Department of Interior to rename GOM as the Gulf of America in the Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) within 30 days. In that STEO, the EIA said it follows GNIS naming conventions and stated that it will reflect the name change upon the GNIS update.
A data page on the EIA website showing annual U.S. field production of crude oil, which was last updated on February 28, 2025, and which includes data from 1859 to 2024, showed that annual U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.216 million barrels per day in 2024. Prior to this, annual U.S. field production of crude oil had never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more, the data revealed. The closest it came to an annual average of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.935 million barrels per day, the data showed.
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