In a statement sent to Rigzone late Wednesday by the Enverus team, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, said it has downgraded its Brent price forecast “due to recent events including OPEC+ production cuts and President Trump’s tariffs”.
EIR revealed in the statement that it now sees the Brent price averaging $70 per barrel this year and $65 per barrel next year.
“The unwinding of OPEC cuts was a counter-consensus decision, especially with Brent trading in the low $70s,” EIR Director Al Salazar said in the statement.
“This is an indication to EIR that OPEC+ is willing to risk lower pricing levels to recapture market share,” Salazar added.
“There are no more delays or speculation. Trump’s tariffs have been implemented, and the retaliation has begun. Should tariffs stick, global economic growth in 2025 will be lower than 2024 and oil demand will suffer,” Salazar went on to state.
In a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group late Monday, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, projected that the Brent price will average $76 per barrel in 2025, $75 per barrel in 2026, and $75 per barrel across 2027, 2028, and 2029.
A Bloomberg consensus included in that report projected that Brent will come in at $73 per barrel this year, $71 per barrel in 2026, $73 per barrel in 2027, $71 per barrel in 2028, and $69 per barrel in 2029. BMI is a contributor to the Bloomberg consensus, BMI noted in the report.
“This month we are holding to our forecast for Brent crude to average $76 per barrel, down from $80 per barrel,” BMI analysts said in the BMI report.
“Prices have trended lower under U.S. President Donald Trump’s first few weeks in office, with the front-month contract falling from its year to date high of $82 per barrel at the January 15 close to below $73 per barrel at the time of writing,” they added.
“At the same time, while Brent futures remain backwardated along the curve, term spreads have compressed and there has been downside pressure on Brent Contract for Differences,” they continued.
“Market participants are struggling to gauge the impact of the flood of energy related policy announcements made by the Trump administration this month. However, those weighing to the downside, notably U.S. tariff measures, are currently winning out,” the analysts went on to state in that report.
Rigzone has contacted the Trump transition team, the White House, and the U.S. Department of Energy for comment on the EIR statement and BMI report. Rigzone has also contacted OPEC for comment on the EIR statement. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell late Tuesday showed that Standard Chartered sees the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price averaging $82 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $84 per barrel in the second quarter, $89 per barrel in the third quarter, $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $91 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, and $93 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026.
According to the report, Standard Chartered Bank sees the overall ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price coming in at $93 per barrel in 2026 and 2027, and $97 per barrel in 2028.
A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on Friday showed that J.P. Morgan saw the Brent crude price averaging $74 per barrel in the first quarter of this year, $77 per barrel in the second quarter, $73 per barrel in the third quarter, and $69 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
According to this research note, J.P. Morgan sees the commodity averaging $73 per barrel overall this year and $61 per barrel overall in 2026.
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