In a statement sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, revealed that it is maintaining its Brent oil price forecast at $100 per barrel across the second half of 2026 and 2027.
“EIR finds that global oil markets remain structurally tight despite recent price volatility,” the company said in the statement.
“OECD commercial inventories are projected to fall toward a 20 year low in the fourth quarter of 2026, when EIR expects the market to reach its tightest point,” it added.
“Balances are forecast to draw sharply through 2026 before shifting to modest builds beginning in the first quarter of 2027,” it continued.
EIR noted in its statement that the outlook also reflects recovering Chinese crude demand and continued disruption risk at two critical maritime chokepoints.
“China’s crude imports fell to approximately 7.2 million barrels per day in June, down about 41 percent year over year, as the country relied on stockpiles, refinery run cuts, and fuel-export restrictions,” it said.
EIR stated that it expects the import call to return as refiners increase purchases and reserve rebuilding resumes.
The company also outlined that its forecast models Strait of Hormuz throughput recovering to 95 percent of its roughly 20 million barrel per day prewar baseline by year-end 2026. It warns, however, that disruption at Bab el-Mandeb could further constrain regional export routes and add upside oil price risk.
“Oil markets remain vulnerable despite recent volatility,” EIR Director Al Salazar said in the statement.
“Inventories are approaching historically low levels, Chinese crude demand is expected to recover, and risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb continue to threaten supply,” he added.
“Together, those factors support our $100 per barrel Brent outlook through the second half of 2026 and 2027,” he continued.
Oil Moving Between Supply Risk, Demand Concerns
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Waleed Said, Technical analysis at GivTrade, highlighted that Brent crude traded near $79.62 per barrel today, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) held around $75.90 per barrel “after both benchmarks recorded sharp losses over the previous two sessions”.
“Oil prices are moving between geopolitical supply risk and concerns about future demand,” Said noted.
“The recent decline reflects lower expectations of an immediate disruption to Middle Eastern exports, softer energy-inflation fears, and evidence that U.S. crude supply may be exceeding short-term refinery demand,” he added.
Said pointed out that U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements that Iran faces a ‘last chance’ to reach an agreement have reduced part of the risk premium attached to the Strait of Hormuz.
“His claim that talks are underway and that their first phase would focus on reopening the waterway has encouraged markets to consider the return of more stable shipping and export flows,” he said.
“However, Iran’s denial of direct negotiations, warnings that military options remain active, and uncertainty over whether an agreement can be reached continue to limit oil’s downside,” Said added.
“Any confirmed settlement could push prices lower by restoring confidence in supply, while failed negotiations or renewed military action could rapidly return Brent and West Texas Intermediate to a geopolitical-risk rally,” Said continued.
Supply fundamentals are also shaping the outlook, Said highlighted in the analysis.
“A reported 2.7 million-barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories has placed pressure on prices by indicating that production and imports exceeded immediate refinery demand,” he noted.
“OPEC continues to project global oil demand growth of approximately 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, supporting the longer-term consumption outlook,” he added.
“However, disruptions to maritime routes and energy infrastructure remain capable of restricting physical supply even if headline political tensions ease,” Said stated.
“The latest available IEA assessment also leaves the market focused on whether damaged trade routes, weaker refinery activity, and uneven global demand will delay the normalization of supply flows,” Said continued.
Said went on to state that yesterday’s U.S. JOLTS data delivered a mixed but broadly stable demand signal.
“June job openings fell by 178,000 to 7.359 million, below the 7.400 million forecast, while hiring increased by 96,000 to 5.348 million and the hiring rate rose to 3.4 percent from 3.3 percent,” he noted.
“Layoffs remained at 1.766 million, with the layoffs rate unchanged at 1.1 percent, showing slower labor demand without widespread job destruction,” he added.
Said predicted that today’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, and crude-inventory data will guide the next oil price move.
“Strong employment and services activity could improve fuel-demand expectations, while weak readings may increase slowdown fears,” he noted.
“A larger inventory draw would support crude by confirming tighter physical supply, whereas another unexpected build could reinforce downward pressure,” he added.
Large Moves
In a research note sent to Rigzone by the HSBC team on Tuesday, HSBC analysts, including Jamie Culling, Economist, Australia, NZ & Global Commodities, highlighted recent “large moves” in oil prices.
“The Brent benchmark rose from $71 per barrel in early July, to peak above $100 per barrel on 23 July, as the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran broke down and the conflict resumed,” the analysts said.
“Oil prices have since pulled back, on hopes of a resolution and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” they pointed out.
“Despite apparent market optimism, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been suppressed through July, which is contributing to tightness, particularly in markets for many refined products, including diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer, and plastics,” they continued.
The HSBC analysts also highlighted that the supply disruption has broadened beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
“Attacks by Houthis on Saudi ships in the Red Sea contributed to price volatility in July, on risks to shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait,” they said.
“The Russia-Ukraine war has also played more of a role in supporting commodity prices recently too,” they added.
In a report sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team late Tuesday, analysts at J.P. Morgan said the estimated value of open interest in energy markets decreased by four percent, or $37 billion, week on week, to $836 billion.
“This was largely driven by a decline in prices across the energy complex (Brent eight percent, WTI six percent, TTF seven percent week on week) and further supported by contract-based outflows of $8 billion week on week across all trader types,” the analysts said.
“We think Iran is shifting from the binary approach of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open or closed to a more nuanced strategy of regulating its use by charging service fees for navigation, safety, and environmental protection – an approach with legal precedent under UNCLOS and practiced in other international straits,” they added.
“While legally defensible, the real challenge lies in collecting these fees, especially given U.S. sanctions, which could paradoxically open the door to diplomatic negotiations,” they continued.
Rigzone has contacted the White House and the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Said and J.P. Morgan’s statements. At the time of writing, neither has responded to Rigzone.
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