Energy-importing countries are accelerating their shift towards clean energy at more than three times the pace of energy-exporting regions, as governments seek to reduce exposure to imported oil and gas and strengthen energy security.
According to DNV’s latest energy transition outlook, the share of non-fossil energy in the primary energy mix of importing regions increased by 2.2 percentage points over the past five years. In comparison, exporting regions recorded an increase of only 0.7 percentage points. China, India and Europe have therefore moved towards non-fossil energy significantly faster than the Middle East, North America and Russia.
The disruption to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz has further increased the pressure on importing countries to diversify their energy sources. Governments are increasingly looking at electrification, renewable energy and energy storage to reduce dependence on vulnerable fossil-fuel supply chains.
DNV expects the Middle East to account for around 40% of global oil production in 2050, down from the 50% share projected in last year’s outlook. The forecast highlights growing long-term risks for fossil-fuel exporters as importing economies accelerate their transition.
DNV has also assessed a scenario in which the conflict in the Middle East continues until 2030, with oil and gas prices remaining moderately elevated. Under this scenario, global oil and gas demand could be 4–6% lower while the conflict continues. Demand would remain 2–5% below DNV’s main forecast for the rest of the forecast period, suggesting that prolonged disruption could create permanent reductions in fossil-fuel demand.
Ditlev Engel, CEO of Energy Systems at DNV, said energy security is reshaping the energy transition. According to him, importing regions are accelerating electrification, renewables and storage, while exporters are responding to supply shortages by increasing investment and production.
The report also identifies a growing technology gap between mature clean-energy technologies and emerging technologies that remain dependent on policy support. Falling costs are driving stronger deployment of solar PV, onshore wind and batteries. Solar and onshore wind are increasingly replacing fossil fuels in power generation, while installed battery capacity has grown 14-fold over the past five years.
However, high costs are slowing the development of technologies needed to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors. DNV’s long-term forecast for hydrogen has fallen by 29% compared with last year, while its forecast for carbon capture and storage has declined by 15%. Both technologies are still expected to expand rapidly, but stronger policy support will be required to close the cost gap.
Nuclear power is an exception among higher-cost technologies. DNV expects nuclear to maintain its current share of global electricity generation. Installed nuclear capacity is forecast to grow by 30% over the next decade and by 170% by 2060.
Electricity is expected to remain the central driver of the energy transition, supported by solar, wind, batteries and rising electrification. DNV expects the pace of electrification over the next two decades to be more than twice that of the previous 20 years.
Artificial intelligence is also creating significant new electricity demand. Global data-centre electricity consumption is forecast to increase from around 400 TWh in 2025 to 1,100 TWh by 2030, with AI workloads expected to overtake conventional data-centre workloads in 2031.
Despite the rapid growth of clean energy, DNV forecasts that current policies and transition trends will lead to around 2.3°C of warming. Energy-related emissions are expected to decline by 44% by mid-century, while net-zero emissions may not be achieved until the 2090s.
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