European benchmark natural gas prices fell in the early morning on Wednesday, as traders brace for what will happen next in Iran after U.S. President Donald Trump lost Republican control of both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections on Tuesday.
The front-month price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, fell by 2% as of 9 a.m. in Amsterdam on Wednesday, erasing earlier gains of about 1%, as the market remains anxious about Trump’s next moves on Iran.
The European gas market, as well as the global oil markets, are awaiting whether the U.S. will launch new strikes on Iran, as feared in recent days, or attempt to pursue diplomacy.
The TTF price at 89.59 euros ($100.85) per megawatt-hour (MWh) early on Wednesday is markedly down from the four-year high of over 101.82 euros ($114) per MWh at the end of last week, when the European benchmark price topped the 100-euro mark for the first time since 2022, during the previous gas crisis when Russia cut off pipeline gas supply to most of its European customers after Putin invaded Ukraine.
Europe remains in a vulnerable supply position ahead of winter proper as LNG flows from Qatar are barely a trickle and QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure on deliveries until the end of December 2026, at the very least.
EU storage sites were only 74.33% full as of November 3, per data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. That’s well below the five-year average of about 86% for this time of the year at the start of the heating season. As temperatures drop and the heating season begins, the storage levels have started to fall as withdrawals have begun in most EU countries.
Any re-escalation in Iran would hike European prices back up to above the 100-euro per MWh mark, as it would protract the Qatari force majeure into next year, analysts say.
The global gas market could remain tight well into next year as Europe enters the heating season with the lowest levels of gas in storage in over a decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on Tuesday.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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