(Reuters) – U.S. power producers have raised total generation to new highs in 2024, fuelled mainly by record natural gas-fired output alongside a sharp jump in generation from renewable sources.
Natural gas plants remain the key pillar of U.S. generation, accounting for a record 42% of total power production from January through November, according to LSEG. That gas share will likely hold steady in December.
U.S. power generation gets gassier but also cleaner in 2024
However, utilities have also deployed record volumes of clean power, with clean energy sources on track to generate over 40% of total annual power output for the first time this year.
Moreover, cuts to coal-fired output have allowed power firms to reduce emissions per unit of electricity generation, making good on commitments to curb pollution while raising total energy output.
In 2025, power firms will need to lift generation higher still due to expected increases in total energy consumption by data centres, other businesses and households.
To meet that higher demand, new clean generation capacity is expected to be brought online which should lift overall clean power output to a fresh record next year.
But the incoming administration of President Donald Trump is also expected to spur more fossil fuel production, which could result in fossil fuel-fired generation rising by even more.
FOSSIL FLUX
U.S. power generation from fossil fuels during January through November increased by around 1% from the same months in 2023, to the highest since 2019.
Generation from clean energy sources increased by 6% to a record-high.
The faster growth of clean power sources relative to fossil power has resulted in fossil fuel’s share of the U.S. generation mix declining below 60% for the first time, which marks a significant milestone in U.S. energy transition progress.
The complexion of U.S. fossil fuel generation has also undergone a significant change in recent years, thanks to a 30% drop in coal-fired generation and a 22% increase in gas-fired output since 2019.
US power producers have trimmed fossil emissions while increasing natural gas-fired generation
That switch-out of high-polluting coal for somewhat cleaner-burning gas has cemented natural gas as the backbone of the U.S. power system, and provided U.S. natural gas producers – the world’s largest – with a growing market for their wares.
The greater gas emphasis within fossil power generation has also resulted in a steady decline in overall power sector emissions per unit of generated electricity.
Just over 381,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) have been emitted by U.S. power producers so far in 2024 for every terawatt hour (TWh) of electricity they generated, according to data from think tank Ember.
That emissions toll compares to an average of 390,144 tons of CO2 per TWh in 2023, 408,200 tons of CO2 per TWh in 2022, and 437,720 tons of CO2 per TWh in 2019.
CLEAN GROWTH
A 14% increase in clean power generation since 2019 has also played a key role in driving down U.S. power emissions per unit of electricity production.
Generation from wind farms increased by 8% during January to November from the same months in 2023, while solar output increased by 37%. Since 2019, wind output has climbed 55% while solar output has jumped 218%.
Output from nuclear plants and hydro dams – the two largest sources of clean power in the United States – held largely flat so far this year from 2023. Nuclear output this year is around 7% down from 2019’s levels, while hydro generation is down 14%.
Utilities and other power suppliers have prioritised the development of clean power over fossil fuel power in recent years, with clean generation capacity climbing by 34% since 2019, according to Ember.
Solar power capacity has grown the fastest – by 126% from 2019 to 2023 – followed by wind capacity, which has grown by 43% over that period.
Power firms have plans to add more renewable capacity in 2025 and beyond, which should sustain the recent growth path of clean power supplies through the U.S. power system.
But with Trump returning to the White House in 2025, his more oil and gas-friendly administration is expected to approve more fossil fuel extraction and use going forward.
That in turn could spur utilities to lift the proportion of fossil fuels within their generation mixes, especially if demand loads continue to rise at a faster pace than new clean capacity can be connected to the national grids.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
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