Germany is risking gas shortages this winter if it turns out to be colder than previous years, the country’s gas storage association has warned.
With current gas storage levels at 54.52%, the industry association, INES, said the best it could do by November 1 would be 77%. This would be more than the latest target set by the German government but less than the usual level of gas in storage as of November 1. This means that if it gets very cold in December and January, shortages may emerge.
However, it is far from certain that Germany’s gas storage caverns would reach the 77% full level, the head of INES suggested, as quoted by Reuters. Reaching this level by November 1 would require an injection rate of 1 terawatt-hour daily, and injection rates over the past three weeks have been lower than that, Sebastian Heinemann said.
At current injection rates, Germany’s storage will only be 63% as of November 1, he also warned. Per Gas Infrastructure Europe, Germany is currently injecting gas into storage at a rate of around 900 GWh daily.
If the winter is mild, 77% full gas storage would be enough to cover seasonal demand and leave Germany with 38% full storage by April 1, the executive noted. However, if the winter turns out colder than hoped for, some days in January could see a gap between gas demand and supply of as much as 25%.
The overall gas storage level for the European Union is ticking closer to 70%, with some countries at over 90%, including Portugal and Poland. However, Germany is the biggest consumer of gas in the EU and the country with the most storage.
Gas buyers have not been in a rush to buy LNG for winter storage because of prices. Normally, LNG prices dip over the summer, but this year they have remained elevated because of the war in the Middle East, along with higher consumption in parts of the world, including Europe, amid several hotter-than-usual periods.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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