GlobalData has identified the “top” themes that will impact the oil and gas industry this year in a new strategic intelligence report, the company highlighted in a statement sent to Rigzone recently.
Geopolitics is the “biggest disruptive theme” for this year, the statement revealed, noting that “the Iran conflict and the resultant supply chain disruptions arising from the Strait of Hormuz blockade makes ‘geopolitics’ and ‘supply chain’ … the key themes impacting the oil and gas industry in 2026”.
“Moreover, U.S. tariffs might continue to weigh on the global economy, despite a slight easing of these worries in the recent past,” the statement added.
“It is therefore important for the industry to assess the impact of these macroeconomic themes while charting out their growth plans,” it continued.
According to a table showing the “strategic themes transforming the oil and gas industry”, which was included in the statement, macro themes under this banner, besides ‘geopolitics’, ‘supply chain’, and ‘tariffs’, include ‘inflation’, ‘regulation’, ‘pandemics’, and ‘deal making’.
Technology themes under this banner include ‘artificial intelligence’, ‘data analytics’, ‘cybersecurity’, ‘3D printing’, ‘quantum computing’, and ‘robotics’, while industry themes under this banner include ‘shale’, the ‘energy transition’, ‘LNG’, and ‘carbon capture and storage’, the table showed.
“Although the U.S. and Iran have recently reached a ceasefire, the failure to achieve a permanent end to this conflict will keep the region on edge,” GlobalData said in the statement.
“The severity of the impact will depend on the full extent of damage sustained to oil and gas facilities across the Middle East. It will likely prove an inflection point for key countries, starting with the Middle East itself, which has seen its energy exports drop and expat workers flee,” it added.
“Although the global economy is now relatively less dependent on Middle Eastern energy than in the past, it still contributes considerable volumes of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum fuels to global markets,” it continued.
GlobalData Oil and Gas Analyst Ravindra Puranik said in the statement, “the renewed conflict in the Middle East has led to a spike in oil and gas prices and has throttled maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz”.
“This has severely disrupted energy supplies through the Persian Gulf, with oil prices spiking to around 44 percent above their pre-war levels in March 2026. Countries have reacted with a mix of emergency fiscal measures, supply rationing, and a pivot to alternative fuels,” Puranik added.
“However, it remains unclear whether these efforts will be enough to meet energy needs, as it could take months to re-establish steady export volumes through this choke point,” Puranik said.
The GlobalData analyst went on to state that GlobalData’s research “shows that companies that invest in the right themes become success stories, while those that miss the big themes ultimately fail”.
“Given that so many themes are disruptive, it is very easy to be blindsided by industry outsiders invading your sector,” Puranik warned.
In a commodities note sent to Rigzone on Friday by the Saxo Bank team, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that Brent crude remained “elevated after touching a fresh wartime high late in April, supported by worsening physical tightness and rising concern about outright shortages in some regions”.
“The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to prolong a disruption that is steadily tightening global energy markets, with flows through one of the world’s most important oil arteries still severely restricted,” Hansen said in that note.
“Limited signs of a U.S.-Iran breakthrough have only reinforced that view, with Washington doubling down on its blockade while Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, cast doubt on the prospect of a deal, vowing not to abandon the country’s nuclear or missile ambitions while signaling Tehran intends to maintain control over the Strait,” he added.
Hansen warned in that note that the market is no longer pricing the disruption as a short-lived front-month squeeze.
“While the 2026 Brent annual average rose 10 percent in April, the bigger move occurred further out the curve, with the 2027 average price rising 25 percent and 2028 climbing 16 percent, reflecting expectations of a prolonged supply shock driven by damaged Middle East infrastructure, reduced production capacity, and the eventual need to rebuild depleted commercial and strategic reserves,” Hansen warned.
“Yet while fundamentals remain supportive, trading conditions have become exceptionally difficult. Physical tightness continues to grind prices higher, but any credible easing headline could still trigger violent downside corrections,” he went on to state.
Rigzone has contacted the White House and the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on the Saxo Bank note. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Monday, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, outlined that the company sees “a headline driven oil market”.
“When traders believe ships may move again, oil can fall,” he warned.
“When traders believe conflict or blockades could return, Brent and WTI can rise quickly again,” he added.
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