Goldman Sachs commodity analysts expect Brent crude to slump to the low $50s next year, citing an expected oversupply of some 1.8 million barrels daily towards the end of the year.
The surplus will swell as soon as this year, the analysts also said in a client note cited by Reuters. The prediction is in tune with the International Energy Agency’s latest projection for the oil market. In it, the IEA projected supply growth of as much as 2.1 million barrels daily this year, compared with a much more modest demand growth of 700,000 barrels daily, resulting in a surplus of 1.4 million barrels daily.
In another recent sign that many expect an oil surplus on the global market, hedge funds and other speculators cut their bullish bets on Brent and WTI to the lowest in 16 years, according to Bloomberg. The driver behind this behavior, Bloomberg wrote, was receding fear of additional U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, even though the prospects of a peace deal became distant once again after Ukraine’s president stated he would not be making any territorial concessions.
Even so, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate have been trending upwards this week. Brent was changing hands for $67.32 per barrel at the time of writing, and WTI was trading at $63.32 per barrel. Disruption is looming over the oil market right now as the U.S.’ additional tariffs on India are set to take effect today.
If the tariffs affect Indian purchases of Russian oil, this will have the opposite of a bearish impact on global prices, regardless of any estimates of a supply overhang, which Energy Intelligence also joined, predicting a surplus of 800,000 barrels daily for this year.
Meanwhile, oil demand in China, the world’s largest importer, is picking up, and so are imports. The improvement is noticeable on a sequential basis, however, while on an annual basis, demand was down, although imports were up on both bases.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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