Hormuz LNG Flows Still Down More Than 75% Despite Rebound

LNG traffic at the Strait of Hormuz appears to be ticking up despite increased threats to shipments in the chokepoint in recent days.

At least three LNG carriers have transited the Strait of Hormuz outbound since the end of last week, tanker-traffic data compiled by Bloomberg and Kpler showed on Monday.

The increase in LNG shipments extends the rebound in transits in September, but the flows of liquefied natural gas remain over 75% below the levels seen before the Iran war.

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which is affiliated with the Royal Navy, reported an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, which was the eighth such report of a vessel hit by an unknown projectile in the past week.

In September, 21 LNG cargoes are estimated to have exited the Strait of Hormuz, the highest monthly number since the Iran war began, yet well below pre-war levels, shipping data compiled by Reuters showed on Friday.

Shipment analytics firm Kpler has estimated that 21 cargoes managed to squeeze last month through the chokepoint, which handled one fifth of global LNG supply before the war.

In pre-war times, three LNG cargoes per day were regularly exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Most LNG carriers are traveling in dark mode through Hormuz, making tracking trickier than ever and further complicating estimates about flows and global supply balances.

Qatari and UAE cargoes have managed to transit the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, but volumes are too low to move the needle of the global LNG balance.

The choked LNG flows from the Middle East in the past six months sent September gas prices in Asia and Europe to the highest since the 2022-2023 energy crisis, as buyers are competing for available supply that doesn’t need to move through the Strait of Hormuz.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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