The United States and Iran could reach some form of a limited agreement by the middle of 2027, which would allow oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz to continue to gradually recover, but fundamental differences will remain, and the Middle East situation will remain far from normal next year, according to Rystad Energy.
“Achieving a comprehensive settlement would require addressing issues related to Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, Tehran-backed armed groups in the region, and the security of maritime shipping, while also taking into account Israel’s security interests,” Rystad Energy said in a report cited by Azeri news agency Trend.
“We consider it unlikely that all these points of contention can be resolved within the coming year,” the analysts led by Rystad’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge León, wrote in the report.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to recover gradually, but are unlikely to reach pre-war levels in a normalized trade flow, according to the energy intelligence firm.
Rystad Energy has estimated that crude oil exports from Persian Gulf producers averaged nearly 12 million barrels per day (bpd) in September and the first 20 days of October.
“While this is well above the lows recorded earlier in the conflict, it remains substantially below the pre-war level of approximately 18 million barrels per day,” the report reads.
While flows have recovered substantially from the lows in the spring, the security situation in and near the Strait of Hormuz has actually deteriorated, with a higher number of attacks on tankers in recent weeks, according to Rystad Energy.
In the near term, the risk of renewed military escalation following the U.S. midterm elections could be another setback to the recovering Hormuz oil flows.
Early on Tuesday, as voting in the midterms began on the U.S. East Coast, oil prices rebounded from Monday’s 7% loss following a Wall Street Journal report about a U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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