March 18 (Reuters) – HSBC expects the oil market to be in a surplus in 2025 and 2026 due to strong supply and sluggish demand growth, the bank said in a note on Tuesday.
The bank said that it expects a surplus of 200,000 barrels per day this year, revising its a previous forecast of a balanced market, which is likely to grow to over one million barrels per day in 2026 if OPEC+ continues to increase production as planned.
The bank continues to expect Brent prices at $73 per barrel this year and $70 per barrel next year, with risks asymmetrically skewed to the downside. While prices are firmly capped on the upside by OPEC+ spare capacity, they could fall if global trade and economic activity slump, especially in light of U.S. tariffs, HSBC said.
The following is a list of the latest brokerage forecasts for 2025 and 2026 average prices for Brent and WTI (in $ per barrel):
* indicates end-of-period forecast
# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision
Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru
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