The latest GWGI RiskWatch report highlights the industrial gas supply chain fragilities that are no longer episodic but instead embedded.
First quarter 2026 has been defined by a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk following the outbreak of conflict involving Iran, compounding already fragile industrial gas supply chains.
While direct physical disruptions remain uneven across gases, the conflict has materially increased market tightness, price volatility, and logistical uncertainty.
Helium supply has been catapulted back to the forefront of conversations. For the last two years, with a stable supply chain that bordered on over-supply, the blocked Strait of Hormuz and outright more latterly have reignited talks of shortage and significantly elevated the risk profile.
The question of how deep and enduring the supply chain impacts may transpire has become the number one question for helium market participants. In mid-April, QatarEnergy began a partial restart of its Ras Laffan LNG production but the facility may take anything up to five years to fully recover to pre-conflict capacity.
Less vulnerable, but arguably just as exposed, are specialty gases. These ultra-high purity products are not currently in shortage, yet find themselves (in many instances) embedded within supply chains that are becoming more complex, more regional, and more sensitive to geopolitical shifts.
The latest GWGI RiskWatch report, titled , assesses the risk profile facing these supply chains in the context of the ongoing Middle East crisis.
While a temporary ceasefire in the conflict has arguably alleviated a lot of the uncertainty and in theory the Strait of Hormuz is opened once again, the report finds a shift in industrial gas supply chains and security: risk and uncertainty is now embedded. On 13 April, the US introduced .
It notes that, “The quarter reinforces a central thesis: Industrial gas markets are no longer defined purely by supply-demand balance, but by geopolitical optionality and resilience.”
The report maps exposure points, buyer and market realities, and cross-market themes across the helium, specialty gases and [European] carbon dioxide supply chains.
The impact is being felt across sectors and markets. about 50% helium allocations and price surcharges as supply constraints intensify.
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From efficiency to resilience
The report’s finds that industrial gas markets are increasingly exposed to geopolitical events that were once a talking point but are now an active component in risk profiles.
Four key dynamics are highlighted:
- Geopolitics has moved from a background consideration to a primary market driver
- Logistics has emerged as a critical vulnerability, with ‘just-in-time’ models introducing cost and uncertainty into markets that have traditionally prioritised stability
- Energy prices are acting as a transmission mechanism across all three segments, with their impact felt through production costs, operating decisions, and ultimately pricing
- There appears a clear shift in market behaviour, with efficiency likely de-prioritised in favour of resilience.
These dynamics were reflected in industry sentiment captured in early April 2026, within 48 hours of the temporary ceasefire in the Middle East war being announced.
Asked by gasworld how the ongoing Middle East crisis has affected confidence in specialty gas supply chains, a combined 69% share of respondents expressed concern – 40% of which was described as significant, with supply chain disruption seeming highly likely.
Only 18% suggested the conflict had no impact at all on their specialty gas market confidence, meaning 82% of respondents are either outright concerned or expect to see some impact as a result of the conflict.
Underscoring a broader shift
Even in the context of a two-week ceasefire, or the hoped-for long-term resolution to the conflict, the ingrained risk profiles highlighted by the GWGI RiskWatch report serve as a warning for the global industrial gas community and users.
The report concludes, “The Iran conflict underscores a broader shift in which industrial gases are increasingly exposed to geopolitical events. Risk is no longer peripheral, it is embedded in pricing, contracting, and strategy.”
Survey data indicates risk is also currently embedded in industry confidence on the ground.
