Worldwide LNG exports have plunged in the past week to a six-month low as Middle Eastern supply collapsed with the de facto closed Strait of Hormuz and the outage at the world’s biggest LNG complex in Qatar.
Global LNG shipments have plunged to about 1.1 million tons over the 10-day moving average, down by 20% since the war began, a Bloomberg analysis of Kpler vessel-tracking data showed.
Qatar is the primary driver of the lost LNG supply following the halt of production and exports. Supply is also lost from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), whose shipments are choked and unable to move past the Strait of Hormuz.
At the end of last week, Qatar’s state firm QatarEnergy said the damage from Iranian missile strikes on the Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s single largest LNG-producing facility, would cost it about $20 billion per year in lost revenue and to take up to five years to repair.
The Iranian missile attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City (RLIC) last week dashed hopes of quick resumption of Qatari LNG flows even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open to unimpeded and safe traffic today.
Related: A New U.S. Facility Could Break China’s Grip on Critical Materials
None of the other major LNG exporters, including the top exporter, the United States, cannot offset the lost Qatari supply, which sent European benchmark gas prices and Asia’s spot LNG prices to multi-year highs.
Northeast Asian buyers enter the worst disruption in the history of energy markets with comparatively comfortable stock levels, but Europe faces its toughest restocking season yet, as its gas storage sites are about 29% full at the end of the winter—10 percentage points below last year’s levels, according to Kpler.
As a result of the low storage levels and Qatar and the UAE offline for weeks and possibly months as any restart would only be gradual, “Europe’s restocking will be slower, more expensive, and more dependent on US and West African supply than at any prior point,” Kpler says.
European benchmark natural gas prices have doubled since the war began as the supply shock of 20% of global LNG flows halted reverberated through markets and prompted Asia to outbid Europe for spot LNG supply.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
- Chinese Oil Giants Rethink Iranian Crude After US Waiver
- Zombie Tankers Appear in Hormuz as War Fuels Traffic Chaos
- High Oil Prices Could Force Fed To Raise Rates
