Exports of liquefied natural gas via the Strait of Hormuz appear to have ground to a halt over the past three days, data from tanker-tracking firms have suggested, while oil tanker traffic has shrunk considerably, Reuters reported today.
ING analysts, meanwhile, wrote in a note today that the latest hostilities would have a more serious impact on gas markets than oil markets, based on the previous rate of export recovery in the Gulf following the June ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran.
“The post?MoU rebound in vessel traffic made one thing clear: LNG flows lagged the recovery,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote. “If this latest flare?up follows the same pattern, any eventual resolution could again bring a slow LNG ramp?up — leaving the market exposed as we edge closer to the heating season” the analysts added, pointing to Europe as the most vulnerable.
Last week, Anadolu Ajansi reported that Asian prices for liquefied natural gas had surged to March heights on the latest tanker traffic disruption in the Persian Gulf, with the regional benchmark adding 25% over the last four weeks. On an annual basis, the Japan-Korea Marker price has surged by over 60%, the report noted.
In the week to July 16 alone, LNG prices in Asia gained 10%. On July 16 itself, spot LNG prices in Asia hit $20.2 per million British thermal units, traders told Bloomberg. The price surge reflected the latest military developments in the region, even though Qatar has been ramping up production of the superchilled fuel in anticipation of a permanent resolution of the conflict—which appears to have been premature.
Reuters today cited LSEG data as showing at least four tankers had entered the Strait of Hormuz since Friday to load in the Gulf. None of the four were LNG carriers. Three were probably oil product carriers, and one was a Very Large Crude Carrier, the data suggested.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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