Global low greenhouse gas (GHG) fuel supply could reach a maximum of 270 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2030 but actual supply is likely to be less because many planned projects still depend on final investment decision, according to DNV’s maritime forecast to 2050 report.
Alternative fuel consumption could reach almost 60 Mtoe by 2030, when the current order book is fulfilled. LNG has the highest potential of around 48 Mtoe (or 42 Mt of LNG), largely due to the LNG carrier fleet, which accounts for approximately 60% of potential LNG consumption in 2030. As of August 2026, 813 LNG carriers and 929 other ships can use LNG as fuel (with 319 on order), most of which are large vessels with high energy-storage needs.
Demand for low-GHG fuels in shipping is projected to range from 4 to 22 Mtoe in 2030 but by 2050, it could reach 33–185 Mtoe. The lower bound reflects uptake driven by EU regulations, while the upper bound aligns with the initially approved but now delayed IMO Net Zero Framework.
LNG carriers cannot easily achieve GHG reductions from bioLNG without a flexible chain of custody system in place. This requirement is because the carriers rely on consuming boil-off gas from cargo tanks with fossil LNG to manage tank pressure, which is typically used for propulsion.
Excluding LNG carriers, the container segment could consume more LNG than the remainder of the LNG-capable fleet, accounting for about 30% of the total fleet’s consumption capacity. After LNG, methanol is the fuel with the second-highest potential for consumption in 2030, at approximately 7 Mtoe (5 Mt of methanol). Containerships account for 80% of the total methanol fuel capability, followed by bulkers at 5%.
Of the 67 LNG bunkering vessels currently in operation, 23 have a capacity above 10,000 cubic metres (cbm). Most bunkering vessels on order exceed 18,000 cbm. BioLNG bunkering operations are now present in 20 locations.
©DNV / Maritime forecast to 2050 report
The report notes that the potential global supply and cost of low-GHG fuels mainly depend on feedstock availability, production technologies, and supporting distribution infrastructure.
There are about 350 ocean-going cruise ships in operation, including 35 LNG-capable and one methanol-capable. The uptake is increasing rapidly, with more than half of newbuild orders now featuring alternative fuel capabilities. The order book shows 32 are LNG-capable, four can use methanol, and nine plan to use hydrogen to varying degrees. Operators such as TUI Cruises are also .
In the realm of onboard carbon capture and storage (OCCS), 32 vessels are sailing with systems in which chemicals (amines) absorb CO2 from the exhaust, reports DNV.
Three of these have systems capable of storing liquefied CO2 on board for offloading to a reception point. The others store CO2-rich amines for offloading to onshore processing prior to further distribution of CO2 for use or permanent storage. Pilot projects – for example, Solvang’s and Wärtsilä’s OCCS installation on Clipper Eris, GCMD’s Captured on Ever Top, and EverLoNG – have demonstrated OCCS feasibility under marine conditions.
Success will depend on regulatory acceptance and development of downstream infrastructure for receiving, transporting, and permanently storing or utilising CO2. DNV published in June.
The EU ETS currently offers the only explicit incentive for OCCS in maritime GHG regulations, while the IMO is developing a dedicated regulatory architecture, including LCA-based crediting of captured CO2, and classification societies provide interim safety guidelines.
Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO Maritime, DNV said ships ordered today will operate well beyond 2050, but many of the factors shaping their future performance remain uncertain. Energy efficiency is one of the most immediate and practical levers available to shipowners, delivering value across regulatory outcomes whether implemented at the newbuild stage or as a retrofit.
“Regulatory requirements are advancing faster than the fuel, infrastructure, and technological systems needed to support them, making long-term investment decisions increasingly complex,” she said.
“The industry therefore needs greater clarity and alignment among all stakeholders to provide the confidence required for long-term investment. In the meantime, shipowners need strategies that deliver benefits today while remaining resilient across a range of regulatory and market outcomes.”
