In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team today, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, noted that natural gas is searching for “near term equilibrium”.
“After easing yesterday morning from Wednesday’s dramatic 48 cent intraday rally, the NYMEX front-month contract sold off further after another soft EIA [U.S. Energy Information Administration] storage report,” Rubin said in the EBW report.
“Technically, the May contract slid below the 100-day moving average at $3.52 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) and is retesting Tuesday’s low close at $3.465,” Rubin added.
“Fundamentally, while next week could see both early-season heat and late-season cold, weather-driven demand is set to retreat rapidly into the back half of April,” Rubin continued.
The EBW analyst went on to state in the report that lower production and stronger LNG may offer support for gas prices but added triple-digit weekly injections could be on the near-term horizon.
“The forced selling of the past week … may be over,” Rubin said in the report.
“Uncertainty is elevated. After a speculator surge in late winter drove NYMEX futures up, the unwinding of speculator longs has near-term pricing closer to fair fundamental value as the longer-term strip presents more compelling valuations,” Rubin added.
The EIA’s latest weekly natural gas storage report, which was released on April 10 and included data for the week ending April 4, stated that “working gas in storage was 1,830 billion cubic feet as of Friday, April 4, 2025, according to EIA estimates”.
“This represents a net increase of 57 billion cubic feet from the previous week. Stocks were 450 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 40 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 1,870 billion cubic feet,” it added.
“At 1,830 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” the EIA natural gas storage report went on to state.
The EIA’s next weekly natural gas storage report is scheduled to be released on April 17. It will include data for the week ending April 11.
In separate EBW report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Thursday, Rubin warned that continued near term volatility is probable.
“The May natural gas contract dropped to $3.336 yesterday [Wednesday] before a significant reversal higher across financial markets flipped the script – and sent prices screaming higher 48 cents per MMBtu into the close,” Rubin said in the report.
“Supportive near-term weather may retreat eight billion cubic feet per day into early next week, Permian pipeline maintenance is restricting production, and LNG feedgas demand is strong,” Rubin added.
“Consensus estimates for this morning’s EIA [U.S. Energy Information Administration] storage report are for a 50-58 billion cubic feet injection,” Rubin continued.
In that report, Rubin went on to state that near-term pricing will be dictated by trader positioning.
“The NYMEX front-month has plunged $1.61 per MMBtu (-33%) from intraday highs at $4.946 on March 10 to … [Wednesday’s] low,” Rubin said.
“Bullish speculator appetite for racing fully back into long positions may be limited,” Rubin added.
EBW Analytics Group provides independent expert analysis of natural gas, electricity, and crude oil markets, the company’s site states.
Rubin is an expert in econometrics, statistics, microeconomics, and energy-related public policy, the site adds, noting that he is “instrumental in designing the algorithms used in our models, and in assessing the potential discrepancies between theoretical and practical market effects of models and historical results”.
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