Executives from oil and gas firms have revealed where they expect the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released last week.
The survey asked participants where they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 124 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $68 per barrel for the six month mark, $70 per barrel for the year mark, $74 per barrel for the two year mark, and $82 per barrel for the five year mark, the survey showed.
Executives from 124 oil and gas firms also answered this question in the fourth quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey and gave a mean response of $69 per barrel for the six month mark, $71 per barrel for the year mark, $74 per barrel for the two year mark, and $80 per barrel for the five year mark, that survey showed.
The average response executives from 129 oil and gas firms gave when they were asked in the latest survey what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2025 was $68.32 per barrel, this survey outlined. The low forecast came in at $50 per barrel, the high forecast was $100 per barrel, and the spot price during the survey was $67.60 per barrel, the survey pointed out.
The average response executives from 131 oil and gas firms gave when asked in the previous Dallas Fed Energy Survey what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2025 was $71.13 per barrel, that survey showed. The low forecast came in at $53 per barrel, the high forecast was $100 per barrel, and the spot price during the survey was $70.66 per barrel, that survey highlighted.
The first quarter 2025 Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants, in the top two areas in which their firm is active, what WTI price does their firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells. Executives from 83 exploration and production firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $26 per barrel for the Eagle Ford, $33 per barrel for the Permian (Delaware), $35 per barrel for the Permian (Midland), $41 per barrel for Other U.S. (Shale), $45 per barrel for Other U.S. (non-shale), and $45 per barrel for Permian (Other), the survey showed.
“The average price across the entire sample is approximately $41 per barrel, up from $39 last year,” the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey stated.
“Across regions, the average price necessary to cover operating expenses ranges from $26 to $45 per barrel. Almost all respondents can cover operating expenses for existing wells at current prices,” it added.
“Large firms (with crude oil production of 10,000 barrels per day or more as of fourth quarter 2024) require prices of $31 per barrel to cover operating expenses for existing wells, based on the average of company responses. That compares with $44 for small firms (fewer than 10,000 barrels per day),” it continued.
The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey went on to ask participants, in the top two areas in which their firm is active, what WTI price does their firm need to profitably drill a new well. Executives from 81 exploration and production firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $61 per barre for the Permian (Midland), $62 per barrel for the Eagle Ford and the Permian (Delaware), $63 per barrel for Other U.S. (Shale), $66 per barrel for Other U.S. (Non-shale), and $70 per barrel for Permian (Other), the survey revealed.
“For the entire sample, firms need $65 per barrel on average to profitably drill, higher than the $64 per barrel price when this question was asked in last year’s first-quarter survey,” the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey stated.
“Across regions, average breakeven prices to profitably drill range from $61 to $70 per barrel. Breakeven prices in the Permian Basin average $65 per barrel, unchanged from last year,” it added.
“Large firms (with crude oil production of 10,000 barrels per day or more as of fourth quarter 2024) require a $61 per barrel price to profitably drill, based on the average of company responses. That compared with $66 for small firms (fewer than 10,000 barrels per day),” it went on to state.
The Dallas Fed conducts the Dallas Fed Energy Survey quarterly to obtain a timely assessment of energy activity among oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District, the Dallas Fed Energy Survey states.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is part of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States, the Dallas Fed site highlights.
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