Oil Market Appears ‘Torn’

The oil market appears “torn”.

That’s what Standard Chartered Bank Energy Research Head Emily Ashford outlined in a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team this week, which included a Brent price forecast from Standard Chartered’s machine learning model for next Monday.

“The market appears torn between the overwhelming media narrative of an impending supply glut just over the horizon on the one hand, and increasingly unpredictable U.S. policy with a focus on some of the largest producers, and the demand implications of the evolving tariff/trade war landscape on the other,” Ashford said in the statement.

“Front-month Brent crude prices closed at $68.89 per barrel on 3 November, just $0.01 per barrel higher than our machine learning model SCORPIO’s forecast set last week,” Ashford added.

“This week the model sees an increase of $1.67 per barrel to $66.56 per barrel settlement on Monday 10 November, mainly driven by data from the U.S. (pointing sideways but bullish altogether),” Ashford continued.

In the report, Ashford cautioned that “the ongoing U.S. shutdown means that some key data releases remain on pause”.

Ashford highlighted in the report that Standard Chartered’s “core view” is that crude oil sentiment “is currently overwhelmingly negative”.

“We expect near-term weakness driven by perceived market oversupply and global demand indicators,” Ashford noted.

“Low prices then start to quash U.S. shale output growth, and if OPEC+’s return of barrels is sustained, the market will highlight tightness and geographic concentration of spare capacity, which we expect to be supportive in the medium term,” Ashford added.

Standard Chartered’s report projected that the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price will average $68.50 per barrel overall in 2025 and $63.50 per barrel overall in 2026. The report forecast that the commodity will come in at $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $62 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $63 per barrel in the second quarter, $64 per barrel in the third quarter, and $64.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Rigzone has contacted the White House, the U.S. Department of Energy, the American Petroleum Institute, and OPEC for comment on the Standard Chartered report. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.

In a research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team late Monday, J.P. Morgan analysts said the estimated value of open interest in energy markets decreased by $2 billion week on week, “driven by contract-based outflows across natural gas markets of -$6.7 billion week on week”.

“This followed price weakness across European natural gas markets and short covering across NYMEX through the week,” they added.

“The decline in the estimated value of open interest across energy markets was partially offset by contract-based inflows of $6.3 billion week on week in the crude oil and refined petroleum product markets,” they continued.

In a research note sent to Rigzone by Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at J.P. Morgan, on October 31, J.P. Morgan projected that the Brent crude oil price will average $66 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026. In that note, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will average $61 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $55 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $57 per barrel across the second and third quarters, and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The White House website highlights that the U.S. government has been shut down for more than 37 days.

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