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The decision by OPEC+ to once again raise production may have been more modest than expected, but oil prices could still tumble below $60 a barrel into the end of the year and the start of 2026, FGE NexantECA Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki said on Bloomberg Television.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, which shocked the market earlier this year by abandoning its long-standing efforts to shore up prices, signaled caution on Sunday with a plan to add 137,000 barrels a day next month as a widely expected glut looms.
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“I would say below $60 in the first quarter of next year is possible, mid-$50s is definitely possible, and then that will have a big impact on the US shale production. So the supply side will go down, which gives a boost to the prices also,” he said. “We have not seen the real impact of this unwinding as yet.”
The market had expected a bigger unwind from OPEC+, Fesharaki said, and a muted price reaction could embolden the group. Brent rose above $66 a barrel on Monday after futures fell at the end of last week ahead of the decision.
“OPEC is going look at this and if they find that there is no impact on the market, they might double or triple as they did last time,” he said, adding stockpiles remain tight. “Until you actually see inventories building up, then there will be no impact on the prices.”
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