Oil has sharply repriced lower into the mid-$90s, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Wednesday.
In the statement, Aslam highlighted that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent were down 13-15 percent intraday “as a two-week Strait of Hormuz ceasefire triggers a rapid unwind of geopolitical risk premium following the $110+ spike”.
“While the move reflects easing supply fears and potential flow normalization, the market remains highly headline-driven, with volatility elevated and sentiment fragile,” Aslam warned in the statement.
“Structurally, oil sits at a crossroads – near-term downside is anchored by improving supply dynamics and expectations of a more balanced 2026 outlook, while upside risks persist if tensions re-escalate,” he added.
“Macro signals add further complexity, as sticky inflation and energy-driven input costs support demand resilience, but growing concerns around economic slowdown and today’s FOMC minutes could reinforce downside pressure if growth risks begin to dominate,” Aslam went on to state.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Zaheer Anwari, co-founder and CEO at The Revacy Fund, noted that oil “dropped sharply on Wednesday, falling back below $100 per barrel as traders priced out some of the recent geopolitical risk”.
“The announcement of a temporary ceasefire framework, along with signs of a possible negotiation path between the United States and Iran, was enough to shift sentiment and pull oil lower,” Anwari said.
“The prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening has also eased some of the immediate pressure, particularly as early tanker movements point to the possibility of transit resuming through the chokepoint,” Anwari added.
“That said, the market is unlikely to assume a full return to normal conditions too quickly. Any improvement in global energy flows could still be slow, uneven, and vulnerable to disruption, which may help stop oil from falling too far, too fast,” The Revacy Fund CEO noted.
Looking ahead, Anwari said the oil market “is likely to remain highly sensitive to whether this ceasefire holds and whether supply routes genuinely reopen in a meaningful way”.
“If flows continue to stabilize and diplomacy gains traction, further downside is possible,” Anwari warned.
“But if the ceasefire weakens or tensions flare up again, the risk premium can return very quickly and push volatility straight back into the market,” Anwari added.
In a statement posted on his X page on Wednesday, Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, said, “with the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY”.
“I warmly welcome the sagacious gesture and extend deepest gratitude to the leadership of both the countries and invite their delegations to Islamabad on Friday, 10th April 2026, to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes,” he added.
“Both parties have displayed remarkable wisdom and understanding and have remained constructively engaged in furthering the cause of peace and stability. We earnestly hope, that the ‘Islamabad Talks’ succeed in achieving sustainable peace and wish to share more good news in coming days!” he continued.
In a statement posted on the White House X page on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said, “based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks”.
“This will be a double sided ceasefire! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning longterm peace with Iran, and peace in the Middle East,” he added.
“We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the agreement to be finalized and consummated,” he continued.
“On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the countries of the Middle East, it is an honor to have this longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Trump went on to state.
In a statement on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran – which was posted on the X page of Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s minister of foreign affairs, on Wednesday – Araghchi said, “on behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region”.
“In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council: If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations,” he added.
“For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations,” he continued.
A statement posted on the X account of the Office of the Prime Minister of Israel on Wednesday said, “Israel supports President Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the U.S., Israel and countries in the region”.
“Israel also supports the U.S. effort to ensure that Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile and terror threat to America, Israel, Iran’s Arab neighbors and the world,” the statement added.
“The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals, shares by the U.S., Israel and Israel’s regional allies, in the upcoming negotiations. The two-weeks ceasefire does not include Lebanon,” the statement went on to note.
A statement posted on the Lebanese Presidency X page on Wednesday said, “the President of the Republic welcomed the American-Iranian announcement of a ceasefire for a period of 15 days”.
“He commended the efforts of all parties who contributed to reaching this agreement, particularly the efforts of each of Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey. He also expressed hope that this announcement would be a first step toward a final and comprehensive agreement on the various issues that constitute triggers for our region, in a manner that preserves the sovereignty of each of its states,” the statement added.
“This is based on the principle that violence is not the effective means for resolving problems between states, and that the goal of regimes and governments is to achieve the good of their peoples in a free and dignified life, not to drive them toward futile and gratuitous death,” it continued.
“The President affirmed the continuation of the Lebanese state’s efforts to include Lebanon in regional peace in a fixed and permanent manner, in accordance with the principles agreed upon by the Lebanese, with regard to the full sovereignty of their state over all its territories and the liberation thereof from any occupying presence, and the confinement of the right to war and peace and the use of legitimate force in the hands of its constitutional institutions and none other,” it went on to note.
“This constitutes the sole responsibility of the Lebanese state in any negotiation to achieve the general Lebanese interest,” the statement concluded.
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