A statement posted on OPEC’s website on Sunday revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman decided, in a virtual meeting held on May 3, to boost production by almost 190,000 barrels per day in June.
The meeting marks OPEC+’s first since the UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure announced, in a statement posted on its X page which was translated from Arabic, that the country had made a decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1.
“The seven OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023 … met virtually on 3 May 2026, to review global market conditions and outlook,” the statement posted on OPEC’s site noted.
“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented in June 2026,” it added.
According to a table accompanying the statement, the 188,000 barrel per day production increase in June comprises a 62,000 barrel per day increase from both Saudi Arabia and Russia, a 26,000 barrel per day increase from Iraq, a 16,000 barrel per day increase from Kuwait, a 10,000 barrel per day increase from Kazakhstan, a 6,000 barrel per day increase from Algeria, and a 5,000 barrel per day increase from Oman.
The table showed June’s “required production” is 10.291 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.762 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.352 million barrels per day for Iraq, 2.628 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.599 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 989,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 826,000 barrels per day for Oman.
“The additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023 may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner,” the statement posted on OPEC’s site noted.
“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase out of the voluntary production adjustments, including reversing the previously implemented voluntary adjustments announced in November 2023,” it added.
The statement also highlighted that the seven OPEC+ countries “noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation”.
“The seven countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC),” it said.
“They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024,” it continued.
The seven OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings “to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation”, the statement highlighted, revealing that these countries will next meet on June 7.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Monday, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, highlighted that OPEC+ “has agreed to raise June output targets by 188,000 barrels per day for seven members” but pointed out that “the market is treating this as only partial relief because physical supply remains constrained while Hormuz traffic is disrupted”.
“The IEA’s [International Energy Agency] latest oil market view also warned that the Iran conflict has changed the demand and supply outlook, with global oil demand expected to contract by 80,000 barrels per day this year and the supply cushion much smaller than previously expected,” Aslam said.
“For Zaye Capital Markets, this creates a fragile balance: OPEC+ supply headlines can pressure prices lower, but conflict risk and shipping disruption keep the downside limited,” he warned.
Aslam went on to state in the analysts that, “if today remains quiet on economic data and shipping-relief headlines improve, oil could soften further”.
“If negotiations stall, tanker attacks increase, or Hormuz restrictions tighten again, oil could quickly rebuild upside momentum above the current $100 floor,” he added.
Aslam highlighted in the analysis that Brent crude was trading near $108 per barrel today and said oil “remains elevated but unstable”.
“At Zaye Capital Markets, we see this as a headline-driven oil market where prices are moving down when traders hear shipping-relief news, but staying high because the supply risk has not fully disappeared,” he noted.
“The key point is simple: oil is not weak; it is only cooling from extreme conflict pricing while the market waits to see whether Gulf shipping can actually normalize,” he went on to state.
In its latest Oil Market Report, which was released on April 14, the IEA stated that oil demand “is expected to contract by 80,000 barrels per day this year” as the Iran war “upends” its global outlook.
“This is 730,000 barrels per day less than in last month’s report and a forecast 1.5 million barrels per day 2Q26 decline would be the sharpest since Covid-19 slashed fuel consumption,” the IEA highlighted in that report.
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