A statement posted on OPEC’s website on Sunday revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman decided, in a virtual meeting held that day, to increase output by almost 190,000 barrels per day in August.
“The seven OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023 … met virtually on 5 July 2026, to review global market conditions and outlook,” the statement noted.
“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented in August 2026,” the statement added.
According to a table accompanying the statement, the 188,000 barrel per day production increase in August comprises a 62,000 barrel per day increase from both Saudi Arabia and Russia, a 26,000 barrel per day increase from Iraq, a 16,000 barrel per day increase from Kuwait, a 10,000 barrel per day increase from Kazakhstan, a 6,000 barrel per day increase from Algeria, and a 5,000 barrel per day increase from Oman.
The monthly production increases for these seven OPEC+ countries are identical to monthly output boosts announced for these countries in separate OPEC statements released in June, May, April, and March. A statement posted on OPEC’s site in February revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman had “reaffirmed their decision on 2 November 2025 to pause production increments in March 2026 due to seasonality”.
OPEC+’s meeting on May 3 marked the group’s first since the UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure announced, in a statement posted on its X page which was translated from Arabic, that the country had made a decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1.
The table accompanying the statement published on OPEC’s site on Sunday showed August’s “required production” is 10.416 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.887 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.405 million barrels per day for Iraq, 2.660 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.618 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 1.001 million barrels per day for Algeria, and 836,000 barrels per day for Oman.
“The additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023 may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner,” the statement noted.
“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase out of the voluntary production adjustments, including reversing the previously implemented voluntary adjustments announced in November 2023,” it added.
The statement highlighted that the “seven OPEC+ countries … noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation”.
“The seven countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC),” it said.
“They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024,” it continued.
According to the statement, the seven OPEC+ countries “will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation”. They are next scheduled to meet on August 2, the statement revealed.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Monday, Waleed Said, Technical analyst at GivTrade, noted that oil was “losing momentum … with traders shifting attention from geopolitical risk to fresh supply”.
“OPEC+ will raise output targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, while stronger Strait of Hormuz exports have reduced the risk premium,” Said stated in the analysis.
“Demand is now the key test, especially with weaker Chinese import concerns and uneven global consumption,” Said continued.
Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, highlighted in a separate market analysis sent to Rigzone today that oil prices “slipped in early trading this week”, adding that the oil market “may be shifting from supply scarcity to oversupply, as major exporters accelerate production now that the Strait of Hormuz remains open”.
“Even though OPEC+ agreed to raise output by roughly 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, global stockpiles may struggle to absorb the surge if the strait stays open and flows continue uninterrupted,” he said in the analysis.
Hasn went on to state in the analysis that “this oversupply thesis holds only as long as oil continues flowing freely from the Middle East, and only if the current de-escalation proves durable”.
“For now, the market seems cautiously optimistic that the ceasefire will hold, and the geopolitical risk premium has eroded significantly as a result,” he added.
“Still, even with OPEC+’s recent hike seemingly downplayed by the market, that increase may not remain confined to paper if the truce holds over the coming months,” he warned.
“The counter-scenario emerges if talks to implement the signed memorandum of understanding fail to produce real breakthroughs. That would raise the risk of renewed escalation, and with it, another supply disruption,” he said.
In a statement posted on its website on Monday, Saxo Bank highlighted that Brent was “weighed down by continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz and after OPEC+ backed another 180,000 barrels a day increase from next month”.
“Saudi Arabia’s exports have already surged close to pre-war levels, while the UAE, which quit OPEC during the conflict, has also restored flows at a rapid pace,” the bank added in the statement.
“While banks have slashed their year-end price forecasts, hedge funds have cut their net long in Brent crude futures to near historical lows,” it continued.
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