OPEC+ is preparing to consider a significantly larger oil output increase at its meeting on Sunday, as escalating military conflict involving Iran threatens energy flows across the Middle East.
According to sources close to the talks, the alliance could raise production by as much as 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April — three times the previously expected 137,000 bpd increase. One source suggested the hike could even reach 548,000 bpd if market volatility intensifies.
The move would mark a sharp shift in tone for the group, which had paused output increases for the first quarter of 2026 amid seasonal weakness and earlier oversupply concerns. Now, with U.S. and Israeli strikes targeting Iran and Tehran retaliating across the region, OPEC+ appears ready to pivot from price management to supply stabilization.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have already begun increasing exports in anticipation of potential disruptions, according to trade sources. Saudi crude shipments averaged near three-year highs in February, while UAE exports of flagship Murban crude are set to rise in April. Combined exports from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE are also trending higher.
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The stakes are significant. Iran produces roughly 3.3 million bpd and exports over 2 million bpd, largely to China. Its key export hub at Kharg Island has reportedly faced explosions, while the broader conflict has reignited fears over the security of the Strait of Hormuz — through which about 20% of global oil supply passes.
At the same time, Israel has temporarily shut offshore gas facilities amid security concerns, and DNO has suspended production in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, highlighting how quickly regional output can be affected.
Brent crude has climbed to multi-month highs as traders price in geopolitical risk. By moving to boost supply, OPEC+ appears intent on preventing a sustained price spike that could destabilize global markets — even as conflict risks remain elevated.
Sunday’s meeting now carries far greater weight than expected, with the alliance balancing revenue objectives against the need to reassure an increasingly fragile energy market.
By Tom Kool for Oilpice.com
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