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- ICF forecasts 445 GW of US capacity additions through 2030
- Those additions equal about 191 GW at peak demand, ICF said
- ICF estimates the US has 26 GW of excess generating capacity above minimum reliability needs
BOSTON, June 25 (Reuters) – U.S. electric grid’s rapid buildout is expanding at a pace that could effectively add another grid as large as the country’s biggest regional power system by 2030, global consulting firm ICF International said on Thursday.
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A report from Reston, Virginia-based ICF forecasts 445 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. capacity additions through 2030. The grid’s buildout is happening at a frenetic pace as power-hungry data centers, electric vehicle charging and heat pumps compete for access to power plants and transmission lines.
On a peak-demand basis it equates to about 191 GW, because intermittent wind and solar power cannot be dispatched on demand. That is roughly equivalent to the capacity of the PJM Interconnection, the largest U.S. regional grid with a generation capacity of around 185 GW, which serves 67 million customers in the South and Mid-Atlantic.
“We’ve not seen that level of growth in scale in several decades, really since electrification,” said Himali Parmar, vice president of energy markets at ICF (ICFI.O).
However, the U.S. patchwork of seven regional electric grids has limited capacity to absorb rapid growth between now and 2030, according to ICF.
Utilities and planners are grappling with uncertainty over how quickly data centers, electric vehicles and electrified heating will scale, while supply chain constraints, permitting delays and evolving state and federal rules continue to reshape timelines for new generation and transmission, according to electric utility CEOs, analysts and grid operators.
ICF’s report estimates there is only 26 GW of excess generating capacity above minimum reliability needs, roughly 3% of total U.S. capacity. In the fastest growing markets, Texas and PJM, ICF said there is no spare capacity to support new demand beyond next year.
Spending on upgrading the creaky U.S. grid could potentially surpass $1 trillion over the next decade, according to industry analysts.
Reporting By Tim McLaughlin; Editing by Nia Williams
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