by EnergyNow Guest Columnist
President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that the United States does not need Canadian energy. Ahead of his May 6, 2025, meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump wrote that the United States did not need Canada’s energy, automobiles or lumber and questioned why America should continue buying those products.
It was a characteristically blunt negotiating statement. But it was not an accurate description of the North American energy system.
The United States may possess enormous oil and natural gas resources, but producing large quantities of energy is not the same as having the right energy, in the right place, connected to the right infrastructure at the right price.
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The reality is that Canadian and American energy systems have been constructed over decades as one highly integrated continental network. Pipelines, refineries, natural gas systems, electricity grids and fuel-distribution networks do not stop functioning simply because a politician declares that one country no longer needs the other.
The Numbers Tell a Very Different Story
In 2025, Canada supplied 63.4% of all crude oil imported by the United States. Canada also supplied close to 100% of America’s imported natural gas, 97.9% of its imported natural gas liquids and 81.3% of its imported electricity. Canadian suppliers also accounted for almost one-quarter of the refined petroleum products imported into the United States.
Canada exported approximately 3.9 million barrels of crude oil per day to the United States in 2025. It also exported roughly 8.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, nearly all of which entered the American market. Canadian exports of crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and refined petroleum products to the United States were worth approximately C$157.5 billion that year.
Those are not marginal purchases that can be replaced overnight.
Canadian crude represents more than six out of every 10 barrels of oil imported by the United States. Removing that supply would not make America more energy independent. It would force American buyers to find millions of replacement barrels from countries such as Mexico, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iraq or other overseas producers—assuming sufficient replacement supplies were available.
That would mean longer transportation routes, greater exposure to geopolitical disruptions and, in many cases, higher costs.
American Refineries Need the Kind of Oil Canada Produces
The argument that rising American oil production eliminates the need for Canadian crude overlooks a fundamental fact: not all crude oil is interchangeable.
Much of the oil produced from American shale formations is relatively light and sweet. A large portion of the oil produced in Western Canada is heavier and contains more sulphur. Many sophisticated American refineries, particularly in the Midwest and along the Gulf Coast, have invested billions of dollars in equipment designed to process heavier crude.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has explained that the American refining system remains capable of processing heavy, sour crude that is generally less expensive than lighter oil. It also notes that the United States continues importing oil despite its own substantial production because imported crude meets particular refinery requirements.
Midwestern refineries are especially exposed. They are connected to Canada through an extensive pipeline system and are configured to process Canadian grades. Approximately 70% of Canadian oil entering the United States has historically been processed by Midwest refiners. Replacing those barrels would require alternative heavy crude to be transported over much greater distances or would force refiners to make costly operational changes.
The United States might technically survive without Canadian oil. But doing so would likely mean less-efficient refineries, more expensive transportation, reduced refinery margins and higher fuel costs for American consumers.
That is not energy independence. It is voluntarily abandoning your most secure and convenient supplier.
Trump’s Tariff Decisions Reveal the Truth
Perhaps the clearest evidence that the United States still needs Canadian energy can be found in Trump’s own tariff policies.
Trump has been willing to impose aggressive tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, vehicles, consumer goods and other products. However, his administration has repeatedly treated energy differently.
When sweeping tariffs were announced in April 2025, oil, natural gas and refined petroleum products were excluded. Energy products qualifying under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement remained tariff-free, while non-qualifying Canadian energy faced a lower tariff than most other Canadian goods.
The same pattern continued in July 2026. Trump announced additional 50% tariffs on selected Canadian products, but the White House specifically exempted energy from those new duties.
That exemption was not an act of generosity toward Canada. It was an acknowledgement of American economic reality.
Tariffs on Canadian oil would largely be paid by American refiners, fuel distributors, businesses and motorists. Tariffs on natural gas could increase heating and electricity costs. Interfering with Canadian electricity imports could make regional power systems less reliable during periods of extreme cold, heat or unexpected generation shortages.
Trump’s public rhetoric says Canadian energy is unnecessary. His tariff policy says disrupting Canadian energy would be too costly for Americans.
Border States Are Directly Connected to Canada
The United States has 13 states sharing a land or water boundary with Canada. Their degree of dependence varies, and it would be an exaggeration to claim that every border state relies equally on Canadian energy.
However, using direct oil, gas and electricity connections as the measure, a conservative estimate is that at least nine border states have significant, established Canadian energy links: Washington, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
Canadian electricity moves into western, Midwestern, New York and New England markets. Ontario has directly supplied electricity to New York, Michigan and Minnesota. Quebec supplies New York and New England, while Manitoba and British Columbia support western and Midwestern electricity markets.
The importance of those connections becomes most apparent during emergencies and periods of peak demand. On July 3, 2026, Canadian electricity supplied approximately 9% of New York’s electricity demand during an intense heat wave. New York’s new Champlain Hudson Power Express connection with Quebec is ultimately expected to provide as much as 20% of New York City’s electricity requirements.
Canadian natural gas also enters the United States primarily through western and central border crossings, supporting heating, electricity generation and industrial activity across northern states. Meanwhile, Canadian crude travels through major pipeline systems into refineries in Washington, Montana, Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Michigan and the broader Midwest.
This is not a collection of isolated transactions. It is physical infrastructure embedded in local economies.
Canada Provides More Than Oil and Gas
The relationship extends beyond petroleum.
Canadian uranium used in American nuclear reactors produces enough electricity to supply approximately one in every 22 U.S. homes. Canada is also a major supplier of hydroelectricity, natural gas liquids, refined fuels and critical minerals needed for manufacturing, defence and emerging energy technologies.
Equally important, Canadian energy arrives from a democratic ally with comparable environmental, labour and regulatory standards. Every barrel purchased from Canada is one less barrel America may need to purchase from a less stable or less friendly supplier.
That should matter to an administration that frequently talks about energy security.
The Dependence Goes Both Ways
None of this means Canada holds all the leverage.
Canada still sends approximately 90% of its crude oil exports to the United States. Canadian producers benefit from access to the world’s largest refining market, while American refiners benefit from stable Canadian supplies. Canada needs additional pipelines, LNG facilities and export terminals so it is not overwhelmingly dependent on a single customer.
The relationship is therefore one of mutual dependence—not American charity toward Canada and not Canadian control over the United States.
Trump is correct that the United States is an energy powerhouse. But America’s energy strength is enhanced, not diminished, by its access to Canadian resources.
Canada provides millions of barrels of oil every day, enormous quantities of natural gas, electricity during critical demand periods, refined fuels, uranium and other strategic commodities. Those supplies support American refineries, factories, power systems, transportation networks and consumers.
The most convincing rebuttal to Trump’s claim comes from his own actions. When faced with the choice between political rhetoric and the risk of increasing American energy costs, his administration has repeatedly protected Canadian energy from its most punitive tariffs.
America may not want to admit that it needs Canadian energy.
But its pipelines, refineries, power grids and tariff exemptions make the truth impossible to ignore.
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