Sanctions and Ice Hinder Russia’s Arctic Oil Exports

Russian crude oil deliveries to Asia via the Northern Sea Route have failed to increase as expected during the 2025 season, falling by 4.2% from 2024 levels.

According to figures reported by Kommersant daily, Russian oil exporters shipped 1.83 million tons of crude via the Northern Sea Route this year, equal to some 13.41 million barrels. Most of that went to China, with a small amount going to South Korea.

For context, last year saw shipments of 1.91 million tons of crude via the route, equal to around 14 million barrels. The volumes represented a 30% increase on the previous year. Expectations were that this year would see a further increase in deliveries, but now these have changed, and the Northern Sea Route is expected to account for a fraction of total Russian oil exports in 2026 as well. This year, shipments via the NSR accounted for just 1% of all exports.

The Northern Sea Route has been seen as a cheaper channel between Russia’s oil fields and Asian buyers, as the journey through it is ten days shorter than the route via the Suez Canal. Use of the route is limited to warmer months, however.

Earlier this month, reports said that Russian LNG deliveries to Asia via the NSR were also on course to drop as winter advances, making the route unusable. The Buran vessel, which offloaded a cargo at a Kamchatka floating storage unit on October 26, reached the Northern Sea Route north of the Bering Strait on October 29, maritime news outlet gCaptain reported last week, citing satellite data and tanker-tracking service providers. Images from Maritime Optima suggest that the Buran has been trying since October 29 to find a path through the Northern Sea Route through early winter ice.

Novatek, the operator of the Arctic LNG-2 plant, was starting to reroute its vessels via the Suez Canal, separate ship-tracking data showed. Novatek’s LNG plants are under Western sanctions.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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