Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports hit a seven-month high in September as its production jumped to a 29-month high, the latest data by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Wednesday.
Even as Saudi refinery runs rose by 38,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September from August, crude oil shipments from the world’s top crude exporter increased by 53,000 bpd, according to the data.
The increase may not seem much but it was the highest level since February and above the 2020-2024 five-year average for the second consecutive month.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production, meanwhile, jumped by 244,000 bpd from August to a hit a 29-month high in September as the Saudi-led OPEC+ group accelerated the unwinding of the cuts this summer, citing low inventories, healthy fundamentals, and a steady global economic outlook.
Production in September was also above the latest five-year average for the second consecutive month.
Going forward, Saudi crude exports could remain elevated even amid a perceived market glut as Russia’s key buyers, China and India, are still scrambling to avoid dealing with sanctioned Russian producers and exporters Rosneft and Lukoil. The call on Saudi and Middle East crude as a whole could rise as demand for non-sanctioned barrels, especially in India, is surging.
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The OPEC+ group early this month agreed on a small 137,000 bpd increase in total output for December, and to pause the production hikes in January, February, and March 2026, “due to seasonality,” suggesting that the alliance expects the first quarter to remain the weakest quarter of any year for global oil demand.
While Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ are boosting production and exports, the market is concerned that weakening global demand after the summer peak would lead to a glut. Analysts are also concerned that the Saudis are reducing their spare production capacity, exposing oil prices to a hike in case of a sudden supply shock.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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