Shell Expects 60% Rise in Global LNG Demand by 2040 as Asia Leads Growth

Summary

Asia’s economic growth to drive LNG demand increase
China and India expand LNG infrastructure amid rising demand
US and Qatar to dominate LNG supply by 2035

The latest view from the world’s largest LNG trader is higher than last year’s forecast, which pegged global LNG demand in 2040 at 625 million to 685 million tons per year.

“Upgraded forecasts show that the world will need more gas for power generation, heating and cooling, industry and transport to meet development and decarbonisation goals,” said Tom Summers, Shell’s senior vice president for LNG marketing and trading.

China, the world’s top LNG importer, and India are increasing LNG import capacity and gas related infrastructure to meet rising demand, Shell added.

Natural gas imports into China are forecast to rise this year as economic stimulus plans lift industrial demand, although trade tensions with the U.S. may cap growth.
China saw total natural gas imports, including pipeline supply, of 131.69 million tons last year, the highest since at least 2013. Of that volume, 76.65 million tons was LNG, according to its customs data.

China's LNG growth - Shell Outlook — China’s LNG growth – Shell Outlook

In India, the International Energy Agency expects natural gas to jump 60% between 2023 and 2030, doubling the country’s need for LNG imports, as domestic output is expected to grow much more slowly than demand.

India's LNG imports - Shell outlook — India’s LNG imports – Shell outlook

Declining reserves - Shell LNG outlook — Declining reserves – Shell LNG outlook

To meet rising demand, particularly in Asia, more than 170 million tonnes of new LNG supply is set to be available by 2030, said Shell. The start-up timings of new LNG projects, however, are uncertain, Shell said.

Several LNG projects have seen delays over the past two years due to geopolitical tensions, regulatory hurdles, labour shortages and supply chain bottlenecks, delaying the availability of around 30 million tons of new LNG supply, the size of India’s LNG imports, to 2028.

In 2024, global LNG trading rose by only 2 million tons to 407 million tons due to constraints on development of new supply, marking the smallest annual increase in the past decade, the report said.

The report showed that anticipated supply during the period was between 7 million and 20 million tons but it undershot even the lowest end of the forecast range.

LNG trading growth - Shell outlook — LNG trading growth – Shell outlook

The report expects Europe’s LNG demand to grow in 2025 and beyond.

“Europe will continue to need LNG into the 2030s to balance the growing share of intermittent renewables in its power sector. In the longer term, existing natural gas infrastructure could be used to import bio-LNG or synthetic LNG and be repurposed for the import of green hydrogen,” the report said.

Significant growth in LNG supply will come from top exporter the United States, potentially reaching 180 million tons a year by 2030 and accounting for a third of global supply.

Analysts expect that together with Qatar’s massive North Field expansion project set to come online in 2026, the United States and Qatar could provide around 60% of global LNG supply by 2035.