South Africa is heading toward a serious energy challenge as its supply of industrial gas is expected to run out by 2028. This situation, often called a “gas cliff,” could disrupt hundreds of factories that produce essential goods such as steel, glass, and food. Experts warn that without a quick and practical solution, the country could face major economic damage, including the loss of around 70,000 jobs and a decline of 4% to 7% in its GDP.
For many years, South Africa has depended on gas from the Pande-Temane fields in Mozambique, transported through pipelines operated by Sasol. However, these gas reserves are now close to depletion. Sasol has already announced that it will stop supplying gas to industrial customers by July 2028. Although there is some discussion about temporarily extending supply using synthetic gas, this option is not sustainable in the long run.
The situation is particularly difficult for industries such as steel and glass manufacturing, which require high and continuous heat that only gas can provide. Switching to electricity is not a simple option for these sectors. In some cases, moving to the current power grid could increase energy costs by up to six times, making local products too expensive to compete in global markets.
The government has proposed importing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a solution. However, this plan faces several challenges. Building the required infrastructure, including port facilities and regasification terminals, would cost at least $500 million. In addition, the size of South Africa’s industrial gas market may not be large enough to attract private investors. Even if the infrastructure is built, LNG is expected to cost about three times more than the current gas supply, which could still force many industries to shut down.
Another idea is to use LNG for electricity generation to make the investment more viable. However, critics argue that this approach is not practical, as renewable energy sources like solar and wind are already cheaper. Increasing electricity tariffs to support gas infrastructure could place an additional burden on consumers and businesses.
Researchers are now suggesting a more immediate and cost-effective alternative: Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), especially propane. South Africa already has import terminals for propane at Richards Bay and Saldanha, which reduces the need for new infrastructure. Propane can be used as a direct replacement for natural gas in many industrial processes and is much more affordable to implement.
As the 2028 deadline approaches, believe that switching to propane could provide a practical bridge solution. It may help industries continue operating while the country gradually transitions to cleaner energy options like biogas or hydrogen.
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