In a Stratas Advisors report sent to Rigzone by the Stratas team late Monday, the company revealed that, “for the upcoming week”, it thinks the price of Brent crude “will move higher and will test $73.00” per barrel.
Stratas Advisors outlined in the report that oil prices “will get support” from several factors.
“Seven members of OPEC+ reached an agreement to address previous oversupply with monthly cuts between 189,000 barrels per day and 435,000 barrels per day through June 2026,” the company noted in the report, highlighting one of these factors.
“Additionally, the countries agreed to frontload the compensatory cuts. The bulk of the cuts are to come from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia,” it added.
“The revised plan aligns with our previously stated expectations that supply from OPEC+ will be relatively flat this year, with OPEC+ worrying about the extent of oil demand growth,” it continued.
Highlighting another factor, Stratas Advisors stated in the report that the Trump administration placed new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports to China, “including sanctions on China’s independent refiners”.
“While we do not expect that the sanctions will have a material effect, since the associated transactions are executed using Chinese currency and with non-western shipping, the sanctions do show that the Trump administration will continue making efforts to disrupt Iranian oil exports,” Stratas Advisors said in the report.
Outlining an additional factor, Stratas Advisors said in the report that “oil demand will be picking up as we move into warmer months for the northern hemisphere”.
“While the IEA [International Energy Agency] recently reduced its demand growth forecast for 2025 from 1.10 million barrels per day to 1.03 million barrels per day, we are expecting that oil demand will be 1.30 million barrels per day,” the company added.
“We are seeing growth in U.S. demand, with gasoline demand running 1.74 percent more than last year during the last four weeks,” it continued.
“Demand for diesel and jet fuel is running more than 7.0 percent in comparison with last year. We are also expecting China’s demand will be higher than IEA’s forecast – especially with China implementing a 30-point plan to increase consumer spending,” it went on to state.
Stratas Advisors warned in the report that “a counterweight to the positive factors is the bearish sentiment of oil traders”.
“After two consecutive weeks of increases, traders of WTI crude reduced their net long positions by adding to their short positions, which offset the slight increase in their long positions,” the company said.
“Net long positions of WTI are 62 percent lower in comparison to January 21 of this year when the price of WTI was $75.89,” it added.
Stratas Advisors noted in the report that another factor that will be negative for oil prices is if President Trump reverses his decision to withdraw Chevron’s license to produce and export oil from Venezuela, “which requires Chevron to cease operations in Venezuela by April 3”.
“It was reported last week that President Trump is reconsidering this decision,” the company stated in the report.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone this morning, Dilin Wu, Research Strategist at Pepperstone, highlighted that the U.S. Treasury “has extended Chevron’s operating license in Venezuela until May 27”.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC, the White House, the Trump transition team, the U.S. Department of Energy, the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the U.S., the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, and Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment on Stratas Advisors’ report. At the time of writing, none of the above have responded to Rigzone.
Stratas describes itself on its website as a global consultancy. The company “provides full spectrum coverage of the energy sector and related industries”, according to its site, which notes that Stratas “deliver[s] data, analysis, and insight to leading businesses, governments, and institutions”.
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