The super El Niño weather phenomenon this year will significantly boost India’s demand for coal-fired power generation over the next 12 months, as a generation gap could occur with higher temperatures, the Finland-based think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said in a report on Monday.
The El Niño, the recurrent weather pattern driving global temperatures higher, would affect most energy systems globally, but none would be as affected as India’s, according to CREA.
The El Niño, typically associated with lower wind speeds and less rainfall, could reduce India’s power generation from wind and hydropower. This will open a gap in generation, CREA warns, adding that the gap will be mostly bridged by a surge in coal power generation.
“Combine the lost output from renewables and the increased demand for power, and India could face a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh,” CREA’s analysts said in the report.
“Currently the most likely outcome is a surge in coal-fired power, which would release an estimated 17 million tonnes of CO2.”
India, the world’s second-biggest coal importer and user after China, continues to rely on coal despite a booming renewable energy sector. The Super El Niño could vindicate India’s approach not to give up on coal.
Overall, coal-fired power generation and capacity installations in India continue to rise, and coal remains a key pillar of India’s electricity mix, with about a 60% share of total power output.
Despite booming renewable capacity additions, India continues to rely on coal to meet most of its power demand as authorities also look to avoid blackouts in cases of severe heat waves.
Coal will still be a key part of India’s power system for the next two decades, Rajnath Ram, adviser for energy at the government policy think tank, NITI Aayog, said at the end of last year.
“We cannot be subjective about coal. The question is how sustainably we can use it,” the official noted.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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